178
FXUS61 KRNK 302112
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CRAIG AND ROANOKE COUNTIES HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS. REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES
UNCHANGED.
OVERALL TREND IS DOWN WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.
BITTER COLD AND WIND IS STILL ON THE WAY.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA, BUT WE ARE REFINING THE FORECAST AS GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING FOR WHERE IT SNOWS
VERSUS WHERE IT DOES NOT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS
WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG WINDS AND EXTREME COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE COMING WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREME COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE WARMER GULF STREAM TO THE
EAST WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE BEGINNING TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN
PLACE, THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED IS SNOW. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM WHERE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
CYCLE WE HAVE TRIMMED AMOUNTS.
SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITHIN THE
DIVERGENCE REGION OF THE UPPER LOW. NONE OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL LOW (THE LOW HAS YET TO DEVELOPED YET). THE
SNOW FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SOME BLEED OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN BLUEFIELD AND MOUNT ROGERS, AND INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY ALONG THE TN BORDER...AMOUNTS 4 TO 7
INCHES THERE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT, BUT YIELDING LIGHTER
AMOUNTS...MORE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS, EXPECT AN AREA OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PIEDMONT WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE SNOW AS FAR WEST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY ADDING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES
TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS
OF MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IT REQUIRES THE SNOW GENERATED
BY THE COASTAL STORM TO OVERCOME AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THAT WILL DEVELOP AROUND ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THAT SAID, HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH RESPECT TO
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
ROANOKE RIVER WHERE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OFF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT IN
NC MAY HAVE THE SAME EFFECT CAUSING A SHADOW OVER WILKES AND
SURRY COUNTIES.
WHAT IS CERTAIN: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE A DRY, FLUFFY,
PUSH BROOMABLE SNOW WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 20:1. YOU SHOULD
NOT HAVE TO DO ANY HEAVY LIFTING LIKE WE DID THE LAST STORM.
THE SNOW IS FORECASTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ONLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT IS BEING FORECAST. AS THE STORM DEEPENS
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AREAWIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH IN THE
PIEDMONT TO AS MUCH AS 60 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. ANY
OF THIS DRY, POWDERY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LAND ON A LAYER OF ICE
(THE COMPACTED SNOW AND SLEET OF THE PREVIOUS STORM). DUE TO
THE LACK OF FRICTION, ALL OF THE NEW SNOW WILL BECOME AVAILABLE
TO BLOW WITH THE WIND...WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
DRIFTING AND ROADS BEING INUNDATED FROM WIND SWEPT SNOW, IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION, ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES
SHOULD SHARPLY DROP AMIDST THIS COMBINATION OF FRIGID AIR AND
STRONG WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL
TOWARDS 0 TO -10 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT AND -10 TO -20 DEGREES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN
TO -25 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY AND ALSO FOR MOUNT ROGERS. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE WATCH EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE IF TRENDS REMAIN CONSISTENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE COMING WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY DURING THE COMING WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS ONE TWO TO SEE WHETHER THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, FAVORING MIXED P-TYPES, VERSUS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW AND
THERE SEEMS TO BE NO REAL CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS...MANY OF
WHICH FLIP-FLOPPED FROM YESTERDAY'S RUNS. OF MORE CERTAINTY: WE
DO MANAGE TO GET BACK TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WINTER STORM IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO FALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (KBLF-KBCB-KROA) AND IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SUB-MVFR CEILINGS AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN-FACING SLOPES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO START LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
SATURDAY, THE PRIMARY SNOW FOOTPRINT WILL REPOSITION SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDOR. DURING THIS TIME, HEAVY SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY
DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF A MILE, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY,
CREATING A BLUSTERY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY
SHIELD OF FALLING SNOW WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
EVENING, THE STRENGTH OF THE FOLLOWING WINDS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
BLOWING SNOW, WHICH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY MONDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS
TO FINALLY SUBSIDE. A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>017.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ032-033-043-
044-058-059.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ022-023-
034-035-045>047.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ043-044.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...RCS
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