783
FXUS61 KRNK 310854
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PIEDMONT.
MODEST DECREASES WERE MADE TO SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE STORM, THOUGH THEY REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THE GRADIENT OF WHERE HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR VS WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN LIGHT REMAINS TIGHT, AS LATEST FORECAST DATA INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BANDS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER TOTALS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT NEAR WHERE DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INVADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND
EXTREME COLD IS FORECASTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
3) ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC/GA COAST. CURRENTLY, THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
FALLING ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. HOWEVER, STILL
EXPECTING SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS, ADDING BOTH
INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO FUEL THE SNOWFALL, AND EXTRA
CONVERGENCE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES.
THAT STATED, IT APPEARS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH YET AGAIN IN THE LATEST ROUND OF
WEATHER DATA AS THE UPPER LOW IS FORECASTED TO DIVE AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE ATLANTA GA AREA, TAKING ITS ENERGY WITH IT. AS SUCH,
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE AGAIN BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, THOUGH THEY REMAIN IN WINTER STORM WARNING
CRITERIA ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR.
A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
JUST TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE DRY AIR FROM NEW ENGLAND BEING
CARRIED INTO THE AREA TO FIGHT THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM, THE FOLLOWING FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY STILL APPLIES: THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING
IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN BLUEFIELD AND MOUNT ROGERS, AND
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY ALONG THE TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS 3 TO LOCALLY 6 INCHES THERE. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
PIEDMONT, WITH TOTALS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS DURING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, THIS WILL CAUSE BANDS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PIEDMONT, POTENTIALLY ADDING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KEEP IN MIND THAT, GIVEN THESE
BANDS ARE FIGHTING THE DRY AIR INCOMING FROM THE NORTHEAST,
BELIEVE THE HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED TO 20-30 MILE
WIDE SWATHES INTERMIXED WITH LOWER TOTALS, AS OPPOSED TO
LARGER, MORE SPATIALLY UNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS. STILL SEEING
SIGNALS IN THE LATEST DATA OF DOWNSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OFF
THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT IN NC CAUSE LOWER TOTALS OVER WILKES
AND SURRY COUNTIES.
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE A DRY, FLUFFY, PUSH BROOM-ABLE SNOW
WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 20:1. YOU SHOULD NOT HAVE TO DO AS
MUCH HEAVY LIFTING LIKE WE DID WITH LAST WEEKEND'S STORM.
THE SNOW IS FORECASTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
DURING EARLY EVENING THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THEN
ONLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG WINDS AND EXTREME COLD IS FORECASTED FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM EARLY TONIGHT, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS DUE TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST, WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 40 MPH IN THE PIEDMONT TO POTENTIALLY AS MUCH AS 60
MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES, INCLUDING ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE. GIVEN THE POWDERY NATURE OF
TODAY'S SNOW, THIS IS LIKELY TO BE LOFTED BY THE WIND...MAKING
FOR HIGH POTENTIAL OF DRIFTING AND ROADS BEING INUNDATED FROM
WIND SWEPT SNOW, AS WELL AS LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. WILL
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY AS NEW DATA COMES
IN LATER TODAY.
IN ADDITION, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL
TOWARDS 0 TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND FROM -10 TO
-20 DEGREES FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. AS
SUCH, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY, WHILE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
BROAD 500MB TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, BECOMING BRIEFLY ZONAL TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AGAIN BY MIDWEEK, AS ANOTHER WAVE
DIPS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL US. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COOL, NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST OVER
THE AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES, NEAR TO JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE AREA,
AND THE PIEDMONT AND VA SOUTHSIDE COULD REACH THE MID 40S
DURING THAT TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO STILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEK, AND THE DAYTIME MELTING AND OVERNIGHT
REFREEZE OF SNOW/ICE CYCLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY, AND MOISTURE WILL START TO SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS SURFACE PATTERN ISN'T A
TRUE OVERRUNNING TYPE OF SCENARIO, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DETERMINE WHAT THE DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE.
SOME MODELS KEEP THIS LOW GOING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHICH
FAVORS MORE SNOW FOR THE REGION; OTHERS HAVE IT CROSSING THE
AREA, WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE OF A MIX OF P-TYPES. GIVEN THE
CURRENT UNCERTAINTY, AND WITH COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
FRAME.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RADAR INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING FOR MOST AIRPORTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KBLF TO
KROA TO KLYH LINE. THIS WILL IMPACT MOST AIRPORTS WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AS LOW AS 1/2SM AS SNOW INTENSITY
INCREASES AND DECREASES. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE, CEILINGS
WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST, AND WILL BE INCREASINGLY IFR IN COVERAGE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE NC/VA STATE BORDER, WHERE THE HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LOCATED.
SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
SUNDAY AS SUPPORTING LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER,
WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST BECOMING
INCREASINGLY COMMON AREAWIDE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
DURING EARLY SUNDAY, CREATING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW, WHICH CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE. A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>017.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ032-033-043-
044-058-059.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VAZ043>047-058-059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ022-023-
034-035-045>047.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ043-044.
DISCUSSION...AS/NF/PM
AVIATION...EB/NF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page