850
FXUS61 KRNK 311738
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1238 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE TO BOONE. GUSTS UP TO 50MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN THE HEAVIEST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES
COULD FALL WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. 2 INCHES OF LESS BETWEEN US460
AND THE VA/NC BORDER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND
EXTREME COLD IS FORECASTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
3) ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THROUGHOUT
MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE MAIN LOW OFF THE COAST
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE VA/NC BORDER. WITHIN THIS ZONE, SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO BELOW 1 MILE.
GUIDANCE HAS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY ENCOMPASS
PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS AGAIN. IF THIS
OCCURS, COULD HAVE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF SNOWFALL. HEAVIEST
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER,
WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH A FEW
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE A DRY, FLUFFY, PUSH BROOM-ABLE SNOW
WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 20:1. YOU SHOULD NOT HAVE TO DO AS
MUCH HEAVY LIFTING LIKE WE DID WITH LAST WEEKEND'S STORM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG WINDS AND EXTREME COLD IS FORECASTED FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM EARLY TONIGHT, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS DUE TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST, WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 40 MPH IN THE PIEDMONT TO POTENTIALLY AS MUCH AS 50
MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES, INCLUDING ALONG THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE. GIVEN THE POWDERY NATURE OF
TODAY'S SNOW, THIS IS LIKELY TO BE LOFTED BY THE WIND...MAKING
FOR HIGH POTENTIAL OF DRIFTING AND ROADS BEING INUNDATED FROM
WIND SWEPT SNOW, AS WELL AS LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM BOONE TO ROANOKE. THIS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL
TOWARDS 0 TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND FROM -10 TO
-20 DEGREES FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. AS
SUCH, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY, WHILE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
BROAD 500MB TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
COOL, NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES, NEAR TO JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE AREA,
AND THE PIEDMONT AND VA SOUTHSIDE COULD REACH THE MID 40S
DURING THAT TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO STILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEK, AND THE DAYTIME MELTING AND OVERNIGHT
REFREEZE OF SNOW/ICE CYCLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY, ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE
EAST, AND AMPLIFIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST PASSING OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP A PUSH EAST INTO OUR REGION.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHAT THE DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH TRACK, BUT ALL AGREE THAT
WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. A TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL FAVOR MORE SNOW, WHILE A
TRACK OVERHEAD WILL FAVOR MORE OF A MIX. GIVEN THE CURRENT
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RADAR INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR MOST AIRPORTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KBLF TO KROA TO KLYH LINE. THIS WILL IMPACT MOST AIRPORTS WITHIN
THIS ZONE WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AS LOW AS 1/2SM
AS SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES AND DECREASES. ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS LINE, CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, AND WILL BE INCREASINGLY IFR IN
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NC/VA STATE BORDER, WHERE THE
HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL WILL BE LOCATED.
SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
30 TO 40KT RANGE AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
BLOWING SNOW COULD SUDDENLY REDUCE VISIBILITY CLOSE TO GROUND
LEVEL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY MONDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
FINALLY SUBSIDE. A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE
HOLD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>017.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ015>017-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ032-033-043-
044-058-059.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VAZ043>047-058-059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ022-023-
034-035-045>047.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001>003-
018>020.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ043-044.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG
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