081
FXUS61 KRNK 010718
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
218 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE TO BOONE. GUSTS UP TO 50MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN
CANCELED, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT, AS SNOW
CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS.
EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY WV FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. VERY COLD
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
2) STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH TODAY, THOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW
HAS COME TO AN END FOR MOST.
3) A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. VERY COLD AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS IS SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT THE MOMENT,
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE TEENS AND SOME IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS, AND MORE AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY DAWN SUNDAY. THOUGH THE WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING, THE WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND -10 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT AND FROM -10
TO -20 DEGREES FROM THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS AND WESTWARD. AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LESS WIND,
POINTING TO A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP, ESPECIALLY WITH
PLENTY OF SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,
THOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS COME TO AN END FOR MOST.
THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF EARLY
THIS MORNING. FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NORTHWESTERLY, AND SO WILL
SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THESE UPSLOPE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING, AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH THE MORNING,
LEADING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE. WIND GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY,
REACHING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND 30 TO
40 IN THE WEST, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WATAUGA COUNTY NC UP TO ROANOKE
COUNTY VA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ROADS COULD EASILY BECOME
SNOW COVERED AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS BLOW THE SNOW
AROUND, AND LOCALIZED WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER AND CLOSER
TO NORMAL, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
BY MIDWEEK, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ENDS WITH A TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT THAT CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, BRINGING
CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS, SPREADING TO INCLUDE THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
AREAWIDE BY NIGHTFALL INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AT WHICH TIME
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. DURING THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH NEGLIGIBLE AMOUNTS FOR THE PIEDMONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS
LOOKS LIKE A QUICK-HITTER AND AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE FOOTHILLS, DRYING UP OVER THE
PIEDMONT.
THE PIEDMONT WILL BE THE FIRST AREA TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY,
WITH THE MOUNTAINS ALSO WARMING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SNOW MELT, BUT TEMPERATURES AT
NIGHT WILL CAUSE MELTWATER TO REFREEZE, KEEPING CONDITIONS ON THE
ROADS SLIPPERY. ANOTHER DEEP FREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE INCREASING AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. WITH
PLENTY OF FRESH, POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND, REDUCED
VISIBILITIESFROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE GROUND NEAR AREA TERMINALS, AND RUNWAYS MAY ALSO BECOME
COVERED AT TIMES. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS, AND OVER 30 KNOTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD, BUT KLWB AND KBLF WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS FOR LONGER, AS THE
UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS SNOW FLURRIES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST WV UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON. FLURRIES MAY EXPAND AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND KBCB, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
EAST OF THE WV/VA BORDER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY MONDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
FINALLY SUBSIDE. A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE
HOLD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE
LATER IN THE WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015>017-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ032-
033-043-044-058-059.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ001>003-018>020.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ003>006-019-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ004>006.
WV...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.
DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...AS/EB
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