793
FXUS61 KRNK 020706
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
206 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING
TODAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW
ZERO COULD OCCUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING
TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF NW NORTH CAROLINA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR BLACK ICE POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.
A FEW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK. ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD TEMPERATURES IMPROVE SOME THIS MORNING, WITH URBAN
AREAS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND THE PIEDMONT WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS.
2) A FEW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
3) AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MORE
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD TEMPERATURES IMPROVE SOME THIS MORNING,
WITH URBAN AREAS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND THE PIEDMONT WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINED ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS LOCATED AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA, WITH
A RIBBON OF PVA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS US
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE WHOLE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. WE WILL BE
IN A NEGATIVE VORTICITY REGION UNTIL THIS EVENING, WHEN CLOUDS
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ARRIVES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES AND FREEZING FOG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY, COLD WATER ADVISORIES WERE IN PLACE FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD, DUE TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10F, UNTIL MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY SLOWLY INITIALLY, BUT WE
WILL WARM TO NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR THE PIEDMONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, IT WILL BE A HARD STRETCH TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF WARMING ABOVE 32F NEAR
0% FOR THE MOUNTAINS, OUTSIDE OF MORE POPULATED AREAS OF
BLACKSBURG AND ROANOKE WHICH COULD GET AROUND 34F.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FEW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
A BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL AMPLIFY AND BECOME
MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS WEEK, AND TRACKS EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE
AND AN AIRMASS FROM CANADA MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND
THIS SAME TIME FRAME, BRINGING COLDER AIR. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS, THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
AND WARMER AIR FROM SOUTH. THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64, AND MOSTLY
RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE. QPF RANGES
BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT, TO A
COUPLE TENTHS FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV, AROUND 2 INCHES, TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH ELSEWHERE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE VA/WV BORDER. ONLY A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIMITED AS ICE
COVERAGE OF THE LAKES IS NEARLY 50%, WELL ABOVE THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE WINTER. NEVERTHELESS, THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS TO START AS MAINLY SNOW,
BUT WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA SEES SNOW VS HOW MUCH SEES RAIN, GIVEN THE DEPENDENCE ON
TEMPERATURES, BUT MORE CONFIDENT P-TYPE WILL BE EITHER RAIN OR
SNOW. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY, AND
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
MORE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. WHILE A FEW SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION, A PARTICULARLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPERATURES SATURDAY FALL BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE
RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY, CORRESPONDING TO - 15 TO -20 DEGREES C
OR LOWER BY SATURDAY MORNING. 19Z NBM PROBABILITIES FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING LESS THAN 20 DEGREES F RANGE FROM
50% TO 90% ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH FOR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE HIGHER LOCATIONS IN THE WEST, AND COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND THIS WAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. STRATUS DEVELOPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH BLF AND LWB GRADUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER 03/00Z. WE
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN LWB BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY,
WITH SOME VARIATION TO WNW OR SSW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH THE
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WE MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS, BUT OVERALL INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-
508.
DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...SH
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