057
FXUS61 KRNK 030121
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVN DISCUSSION, OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES.
KEEPING WATCHFUL EYE ON MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z NAMNEST
SHOWS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT ONCE IT GETS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL IMPLICATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
2) A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
3) A MIDWEEK WARMUP CLOSER TO NORMAL IS SHORT-LIVED, AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY.
THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL AS A RESULT OF WSW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN FOR
MOST, BUT CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MOSTLY JUST LIGHT RAIN EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MOST SEEING
LESS THAN AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AGAIN ON
FRIDAY, BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIMITED AS ICE
COVERAGE OF THE LAKES IS NEARLY 50%, WELL ABOVE THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE WINTER. NEVERTHELESS, THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS TO START AS MAINLY SNOW,
BUT WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA SEES SNOW VS HOW MUCH SEES RAIN, GIVEN THE DEPENDENCE ON
TEMPERATURES, BUT MORE CONFIDENT P-TYPE WILL BE EITHER RAIN OR
SNOW. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY, AND
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A MIDWEEK WARMUP CLOSER TO NORMAL IS SHORT-LIVED,
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 5 TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK, AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AS
LARGE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR INTO THIS WEEKEND. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 30S AND 40S SEVERAL DAYS, OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER. TEENS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE MOST
MORNINGS, ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS THAT WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
THE COLDEST MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY, DUE TO
POST FROPA CAA. CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH THE SNOW/ICE WILL STILL BE ON
THE GROUND, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR AND
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS
WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUSLY COLD AS THIS PAST WEEKEND, BUT ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW/ICE MELTS THIS WEEK, BUT THE COLD PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MONTH.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BKN-OVC THROUGH THE 24 HR VALID TAF
WITH MVFR CLOUD LAYER OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND VFR CLOUD LAYER TO
THE EAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER 21Z
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING
LOWERING CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10KTS, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BRINGING AREAS SUB-VFR AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB
AVIATION...PM
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