821
FXUS61 KRNK 031049
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
549 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR THE WEEKEND.
POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
2) ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF STATES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST, WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE STRADDLING FREEZING AS A
RESULT OF WSW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST, BUT CHANGES TO SNOW AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MOSTLY JUST
LIGHT RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, MOST SEEING LESS A HALF INCH. THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
MAY SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE
MOST PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH, BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH
SNOWFALL FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING, LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS
THAN TWO INCHES EVEN ON THE RIDGES, WITH MOST SEEING LESS THAN AN
INCH.
HIGHS WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHAT MELTS ABOVE 32F
DURING THE DAYTIME MAY REFREEZE AT NIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER
AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE WEEKEND.
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE 500MB TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEK IS A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DRIVE AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE, SNOW CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, AS THE INTERACTION OF THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE TERRAIN PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LIFT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA, TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, AND
KEEPING MOST OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT TO THE NORTH. CURRENT
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 24 HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ARE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV AND NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN WV MOUNTAINS, AND RANGE
BETWEEN 45% TO 65%. THERE IS AT LEAST 40% PROBABILITY FOR EXCEEDING
1 INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE INTO SOUTHEAST
WV.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE RIDGES, AS A
LOW LEVEL JET OVER 45 KNOTS CROSSING THE AREA. STEEP PRESSURE RISES
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL ALSO AID IN
STRENGTHEN THE WIND GUSTS. PROBABILITY OF MEETING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IS AROUND 60% FOR THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE VA, SO MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ONE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES IF THIS TREND PERSISTS.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL
ALSO BE COLD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S. THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND
PREVENT OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE 20S, BUT BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WILL SEE LOWS BACK IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE. HIGHS
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
WITH THESE PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES AND THICK SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND, IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL MELTING CAN
OCCUR. OUR CLIMATE SITE AT DANVILLE VA MAY VERY WELL GET INTO THEIR
TOP 10 NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH SNOW DEPTH OF AT LEAST ONE
INCH.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2.5KFT AND 5KFT IS
SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING, THOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS
RETURN TONIGHT, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN LIFR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
PRECIPITATION, BEGINNING AS RAIN FOR MOST, THEN TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW IN THE WEST, AND MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN IN
THE EAST, FOR KDAN. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD, 12Z WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
THE WEST. ANTICIPATE LOW CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN THE
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND FOG, DROPPING LOWER THAN 2SM AT
TIMES.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF TODAY WILL BE WSW, TURNING MORE NNW
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND AT TIMES
VARIABLE, DROPPING TO CALM TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WE MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL INCREASING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AROUND, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SUB- VFR AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...AS/SH
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