684
FXUS61 KRNK 032321
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
621 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. NO
HEADLINES TO BE ISSUED DURING THIS UPDATE.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT, ALONG WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
2) ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
3) STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
4) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WV
SATURDAY MORNING.
5) MAINLY DRY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STARTING THIS
EVENING, WITH A POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BE LESS IMPACTFUL THAN THE PAST TWO SYSTEM, WITH
MUCH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY
ACROSS TENNESSEE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS VIRGINIA
HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTING TO DECREASE MUCH OVERNIGHT, THIS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST
ROUND TONIGHT...MOSTLY RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE
ALLEGHENIES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BORDERLINE, ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY COMES FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY AFTER THE
FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT. RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN GIVING BETTER CONFIDENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR REGION, WITH THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE AS
SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTH AS THE LOW DEVELOPS. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS EVOLUTION AND SUBSEQUENT
AMOUNTS, WHICH WILL VARY WIDELY BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. AS OF NOW, LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD. A COATING TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. STAY CLOSELY TUNED AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... EXPECT AN ARCTIC FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE AREA
FRIDAY AND BRING A QUICK HITTING SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND EVEN PERHAPS THE PIEDMONT. SPEED OF MOVEMENT
DICTATES LIMITED AMOUNTS BUT STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD
ADVECTION LEND TO WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY EVENING IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FORECASTED WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, INCREASING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY DUE TO EXTENDED UPSLOPE ALSO BEHIND
THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3... LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 50KTS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST SOUNDING POINT TO MIXING OF 35
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, COUPLED
WITH 6 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A SOLID
WIND ADVISORY. THIS IS A QUICK HITTER, SO STRONGEST GUSTS WOULD
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
DECREASING SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4... WITH THE COLD AIR AND WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO TANK IN THE SUB-ZERO RANGE ACROSS THE WV MOUNTAINS AND
OVERALL LOOKS MAINLY LIKE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IS SOLIDLY
REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AS OF NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 5... OVERALL MODELS/ENSEMBLES PAINT A DRIER
FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
OF WV SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE BUT STILL RUNNING
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ENSEMBLES/MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL. WE SHALL SEE, BUT LONG RANGE
TELECONNECTIONS (PNA, AO, NAO) FORECASTS ALSO POINT TO A PATTERN
CHANGE AFTER VALENTINE'S DAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL PIEDMONT TERMINALS TO
INCLUDE LYH, DAN, AND ROA THIS EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE TO INCLUDE BCB, BLF, AND LWB HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS THIS EVENING. THESE RESTRICTIONS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET WORSE AS IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS LOOK TO CRASH TO THESE
RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO 12 UTC WEDNESDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
LOOKS TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED AFTER 12 UTC WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO FILL IN AGAIN BY THE 16-20 UTC
TIMEFRAME FOR ALL TERMINALS, AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT AT AROUND 0-5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SUB- VFR AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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