563
FXUS61 KRNK 041731
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1231 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF NC.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
2) UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
3) WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
4) UNCERTAINTY ON NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST DUE TO CUTOFF LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
AN IMPULSE MOVING BY IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS BRINGING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE AND RAIN. A FEW LOCATIONS ON HIGHER RIDGES MAY BE SEEING
A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, A JET
STREAK AND VORTICITY BAND ALONG WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
CAROLINAS, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THIS FEATURE
INTO THE INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AROUND NOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. INITIALLY WE SHOULD SEE SNOW OVER WV, A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR PARTS OF SW VA, AND RAIN OVER FOR NC. AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN, WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
PARTS OF NC (SURRY, STOKES, AND CASWELL COUNTIES) WILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY
WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE, SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL ONLY TOTAL HALF AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES. WE MAY ALSO
SEE A TRACE OF ICE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE ABRUPTLY INTERRUPTED BY A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FAST BUT
WILL LIKELY DROP SOME SNOW IN THE MORE WESTERN COUNTIES,
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA. UNSURPRISINGLY, WESTERN
GREENBRIER IS LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW OF ABOUT 3-4",
WHICH WOULD MEET WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHER
COUNTIES, SUCH AS EASTERN GREENBRIER, TAZEWELL, MERCER, AND
SUMMER COUNTIES MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN 1-2". SNOWFALL TOTALS AND
CHANCES DROP CONSIDERABLY AS YOU APPROACH THE BLUE RIDGE AND
EASTWARD. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND 25-35% WITH LITTLE TO NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, A VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FORM OVER THE AREA. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE ACCENTUATED BY BEING SQUISHED BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH TO THE
WEST AND A STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS GRADIENT
WEAKENS BY SUNDAY BUT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SUSTAINED WINDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MAY BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS
STRENGTHEN WITH HEIGHT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT
SUGGEST WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 KTS AT 850MB MAY MIX DOWN TOWARDS
THE SURFACE. THIS TRANSLATES INTO STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND, A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AREAS AT LEAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE.
ONE SIDE NOTE IS THAT THE ARRIVAL OF THE WINDS MAY INTERSECT THE
UPSLOPE SNOW. THESE TWO WEATHER EVENTS COMBINED RAISE THE RISK
OF BLOWING SNOW SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 4: UNCERTAINTY ON NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST DUE TO
CUTOFF LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF LOW AROUND
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT THE BEST AT
CAPTURING CUTOFF LOWS SO THE OUTPUT FROM THIS POINT FORTH IS
TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION, TWO ITEMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEK. ONE IS THE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INLAND INTO MEXICO AND TEXAS AND DISSIPATES
WITHOUT ANY DRAMA TO OUR AREA. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY, SEPARATE
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW, IS RISING 500MB HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA AND
SMALL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A SMALL RISE IN TEMPERATURES, BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO KNOW WHAT THESE VALUES WILL BE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL REMAIN WITH US INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH CIGS LOW END MVFR TO LIFR AT TIMES. LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY IN THE 22-05Z TIME
FRAME. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG/SOUTH OF DAN-HLX
LINE. VSBYS WITH PRECIP COULD DROP AS LOW AS IFR. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z THU WITH MOST BECOMING VFR/MVFR IN THE
14-18Z TIME FRAME. WINDS TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10KTS AND OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND SUB-VFR CIGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE GOING TO GUSTY POTENTIALLY 25-40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND IN WV BY SATURDAY EVENING.
VFR TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/SH
AVIATION...SH/WP
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