632
FXUS61 KRNK 041821
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
121 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST NC
PIEDMONT TONIGHT-THU MORNING FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION WITH
SOME SNOW.
WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION (RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE) POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
2) MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
3) HIGH WIND HEADLINES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.
4) WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE,
A VORT AXIS WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN TN INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION, THOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS IT LAYERED MORE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST VA INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHSIDE VA PIEDMONT. APPEARS BEST LIFT TO OCCUR IN
THE 00Z/06Z TIME FRAME, THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN/SNOW MIX. NOT SEEING A WARM NOSE TO HAVE
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN, BUT DO SEE AREA OF DRIER AIR IN THE DGZ
WHEREBY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR. THIS APPEARS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. NOT GETTING MUCH IF ANY ICE, SO
NO EXPANSION OR REMOVAL OF THE ADVISORY EXPECTED. MAY NEED TO DO
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS SOME MINOR BANDING OF SNOW COULD
BRING A QUICK DUSTING TO AN INCH TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM NC INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
A QUICK TRANSITION FROM LIGHT RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR WET SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN ALONG THE WESTERN-FACING
SLOPES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT JUMPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TO A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THIS SETUP MAY
BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES, WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY FROM WESTERN
GREENBRIER, WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTH TOWARD RICHLANDS, VIRGINIA, THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOUT
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SNOW
BANDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN A SHORT DURATION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
FOR NOW, WE WILL POST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR UP TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
MORE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE POSTED SOUTH INTO
TAZEWELL COUNTY AS MORE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. ONE BIG QUESTION IS
TIMING OF CHANGE-OVER, WHICH COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE FRIDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HIGH WIND HEADLINES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, USHERING IN A PERIOD OF INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS. WITH A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHED AND A POWERFUL 50 TO
60 KNOT LOW-LEVEL CROSS-BARRIER JET IN PLACE, HIGH WIND HEADLINES
ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR THE AREA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS, INCLUDING SEVERE TURBULENCE AND THE STRONGEST GUSTS, ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO PEAK DURING MID-MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4: WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WEEK’S WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY THE
SOUTHERN STREAM, LEADING TO A STRETCH OF WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. WHILE THE SHIFT TOWARD A MILDER AIRMASS
IS LIKELY, WEATHER MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM VARIOUS
ENERGY WAVES TRACKING BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF ANY MOISTURE. IF
A PIECE OF ENERGY DOES SHIFT OUR WAY BY WEDNESDAY, CURRENT
TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN RATHER THAN ANYTHING WINTRY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL REMAIN WITH US INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH CIGS LOW END MVFR TO LIFR AT TIMES. LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY IN THE 22-05Z TIME
FRAME. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG/SOUTH OF DAN-HLX
LINE. VSBYS WITH PRECIP COULD DROP AS LOW AS IFR. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z THU WITH MOST BECOMING VFR/MVFR IN THE
14-18Z TIME FRAME. WINDS TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10KTS AND OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND SUB-VFR CIGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE GOING TO GUSTY POTENTIALLY 25-40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND IN WV BY SATURDAY EVENING.
VFR TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...RCS/WP
AVIATION...SH/WP
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