857
FXUS61 KRNK 050107
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
807 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION (RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE) POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
2) MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
3) HIGH WIND HEADLINES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.
4) WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES NEAR GA/SC LINE WITH INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS UP THE BLUE RIDGE INTO VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WAS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
VCNTY OF THE TN/NC BORDER, HELPING TO CHANNEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SURFACE TROF AXIS. AS SUCH, AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION
HAS OCCURRED WITH A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW NOTED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. HAVE CHOSEN TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCORPORATE THE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW.
PER RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS THIS MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW IS
PRODUCING RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AN HOUR. AN OBSERVER NEAR MEADOWS
OF DAN IN PATRICK COUNTY REPORTED 2" OF SNOW AS OF 630 PM.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS MESOBANDING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE WANING. AS SUCH, THINK POTENTIAL
FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA
BETWEEN NOW AN MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 3
INCHES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY NEAR MEADOWS OF DAN.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FALLING ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF VA/WV. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN
SOME REPORTS OF SLEET. PENDING RADAR TRENDS MAY UTILIZE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WHERE WE DO NOT HAVE ONGOING ADVISORY.
APPEARS BEST LIFT TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z/1AM TIME FRAME,
THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CLEARING THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
A QUICK TRANSITION FROM LIGHT RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR WET SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN ALONG THE WESTERN-FACING
SLOPES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT JUMPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TO A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THIS SETUP MAY
BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES, WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY FROM WESTERN
GREENBRIER, WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTH TOWARD RICHLANDS, VIRGINIA, THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOUT
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SNOW
BANDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN A SHORT DURATION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
FOR NOW, WE WILL POST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR UP TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
MORE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE POSTED SOUTH INTO
TAZEWELL COUNTY AS MORE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. ONE BIG QUESTION IS
TIMING OF CHANGE-OVER, WHICH COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE FRIDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HIGH WIND HEADLINES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, USHERING IN A PERIOD OF INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS. WITH A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHED AND A POWERFUL 50 TO
60 KNOT LOW-LEVEL CROSS-BARRIER JET IN PLACE, HIGH WIND HEADLINES
ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR THE AREA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS, INCLUDING SEVERE TURBULENCE AND THE STRONGEST GUSTS, ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO PEAK DURING MID-MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4: WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY THE
SOUTHERN STREAM, LEADING TO A STRETCH OF WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. WHILE THE SHIFT TOWARD A MILDER AIRMASS
IS LIKELY, WEATHER MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM VARIOUS
ENERGY WAVES TRACKING BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF ANY MOISTURE. IF
A PIECE OF ENERGY DOES SHIFT OUR WAY BY WEDNESDAY, CURRENT
TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN RATHER THAN ANYTHING WINTRY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL REMAIN WITH US INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH CIGS LOW END MVFR TO LIFR AT TIMES. LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z/1AM THURSDAY. WATCH FOR
BANDS OF MODERATE WET SNOW ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER VCNTY OF
KDAN. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO EXISTS OVERNIGHT
INCREASING THREAT FOR ICING. VSBYS WITH PRECIP COULD DROP AS LOW
AS IFR. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z THU WITH MOST BECOMING
VFR/MVFR IN THE 14-18Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING ALL
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10KTS AND
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND SUB-VFR CIGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE GOING TO GUSTY POTENTIALLY 25-40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND IN WV BY SATURDAY EVENING.
VFR TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ032-
033-043-044-058.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...PM/RCS/WP
AVIATION...PM
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