968
FXUS61 KRNK 191921
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
221 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON EARLIER
OBSERVATIONS AND THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE
MESSAGING HAS BEEN CONDENSED TO FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD
AND THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TO PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS PICK UP AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TO PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR CONTINUAL SCATTERED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY COOLER
AND DENSER AIR IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL VA. MID-LEVEL AIR
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS SENDING VORTICITY AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SUPPORT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RAIN MAY
HAVE A TEMPORARY BREAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN WITHOUT RAIN, THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ON THE ROAD
AND MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME. SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FAR WEST AS
SOME WEAK CAPE (<250 J/KG) MAY SLIP IN THIS AS WELL. THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY HOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT BEHAVES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN TODAY AND FRIDAY (TOMORROW).
GENERALLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD AND HIGHER AS ONE GOES NORTH. TOWARDS NC,
RAIN MAY RANGE BETWEEN 0.10-0.33". ELSEWHERE THE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS VARY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TRAINING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN 0.50-0.75" OF RAIN,
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PUSH
THE STATIONARY FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST VA WILL BE IN A WARM
SPOT AND SQUISHED BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAY VERY GET INTO THE MID-60S AND MID-70S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
SENDS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN. DEW POINTS WILL BE HEAVILY
AFFECTED, AS THEY WILL GO FROM THE 40S AND 50S DOWN TO THE 20S
AND 30S. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AND GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH THE NEW AIR MASS,
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISPERSE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS PICK UP AS WELL.
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN CONUS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT WILL THEN
PHASE WITH A 500MB CUTOFF LOW THAT IS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM, JUST BEFORE IT HEADS OFF THE COAST. ONCE OFF THE SHORE AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE CENTRAL LOW OUGHT TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
THE RELEVANT IMPACTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ARE THEN AS FOLLOWS. THE
WARMER AND HUMID AIR MASS COMING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PUT DOWN RAIN
ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AND THEN REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ON SUNDAY, THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL LOW WILL INCREASE THE WIND FIELD IN
BOTH STRENGTH AND GEOGRAPHICAL SIZE. THAT RESULTING INCREASE WILL
CAUSE CAA, COOLING TEMPERATURES AND CAUSING THE MAIN DRIVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME UPSLOPE EFFECTS. THUS RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES OF THE
MOUNTAINS, MAKING FOR A COOLER, BLUSTERY LATE WINTER DAY MONDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
CONTINUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PERMIT CONTINUAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY AROUND KBLF
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. RAIN, MIST, AND EXTREMELY LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BRING ALL TERMINALS TO LIFR STATUS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY SUBTLY CHANGE DEPENDING IF THE
STATIONARY FRONT MOVES MORE SOUTHWEST OR NORTHEAST, BUT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST PUNCHES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
AND SHARPLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS IT PASSES.
A BRIEF SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED WIND SHEAR
IN THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR KBLF. CONFIDENCE ON THIS WINDSHEAR IS
LOW GIVEN THE LOW SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF IT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION:
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME GUSTY WINDS UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GUST BETWEEN
25-35 MPH. SOME WIND SHEAR COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS GUST,
ESPCIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE
FRONT AND RETURN ALL TERMINALS TO VFR TEMPORARILY.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND DEGRADED SKY CONDITIONS
WILL BE BY THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND SOME SNOW MIXED IN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM'S PATH, BUT THE SNOWY CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT
KBLF, KLWB, AND KBCB. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AGAIN AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM'S IMPACT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND.
ONCE THIS SYTEM MOVES THROUGH, HIGHER PRESSURE TAKES OVER AND ALL
TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/VFJ
AVIATION...CG
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