934
FXUS61 KRNK 192356
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
656 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO INDICATE SOME AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT WITH RAIN ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TO PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS PICK UP AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TO PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR CONTINUAL SCATTERED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DENSER AIR IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL VA.
MID-LEVEL AIR FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS SENDING VORTICITY AND
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SUPPORT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RAIN
MAY HAVE A TEMPORARY BREAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN WITHOUT RAIN, THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FOG THROUGHOUT THE AREA WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ON THE
ROAD AND MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE A
LITTLE TROUBLESOME. SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FAR
WEST AS SOME WEAK CAPE (<250 J/KG) MAY SLIP IN THIS AS WELL. THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY HOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT BEHAVES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN TODAY AND FRIDAY (TOMORROW). GENERALLY,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
SOUTHWARD AND HIGHER AS ONE GOES NORTH. TOWARDS NC, RAIN MAY
RANGE BETWEEN 0.10-0.33". ELSEWHERE THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
VARY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TRAINING. WHILE MUCH OF THE OTHER
PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN 0.50-0.75" OF RAIN, ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST VA WILL
BE IN A WARM SPOT AND SQUISHED BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY VERY GET INTO THE MID-60S AND MID-70S BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT SENDS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN. DEW POINTS WILL BE
HEAVILY AFFECTED, AS THEY WILL GO FROM THE 40S AND 50S DOWN TO
THE 20S AND 30S. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AND GUST BETWEEN 25-35
MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH THE NEW AIR MASS,
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISPERSE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS PICK UP AS WELL.
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN CONUS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT WILL
THEN PHASE WITH A 500MB CUTOFF LOW THAT IS DIVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM, JUST BEFORE IT HEADS OFF THE COAST. ONCE OFF
THE SHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE CENTRAL LOW OUGHT
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.
THE RELEVANT IMPACTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ARE THEN AS FOLLOWS.
THE WARMER AND HUMID AIR MASS COMING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PUT
DOWN RAIN ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AND THEN REMAIN
LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ON
SUNDAY, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL LOW WILL INCREASE THE
WIND FIELD IN BOTH STRENGTH AND GEOGRAPHICAL SIZE. THAT
RESULTING INCREASE WILL CAUSE CAA, COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
CAUSING THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION TO BECOME UPSLOPE
EFFECTS. THUS RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES OF
THE MOUNTAINS, MAKING FOR A COOLER, BLUSTERY LATE WINTER DAY
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FOR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO
ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN AND A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
COAST. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER THIS EVENING, BUT FOG AND DRIZZLE
WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING FOR ALL
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY AT BCB AND ROA. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR BLF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHING. MORE RAIN SHOULD
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ENTERING FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WIND WILL SWING AROUND TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT BLF AND ROA. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE GUSTY WIND SHOULD FADE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY TO PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE WIND SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE PIEDMONT SHOULD BECOME DRY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARDS TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/VFJ
AVIATION...PW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page