287
FXUS61 KRNK 200536
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1236 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE...
INCREASED FOG COVERAGE AND WILL BE DENSE TIL PRE-DAWN ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT TRAVEL THIS MORNING.
2) RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TO PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
3) ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS PICK UP AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FOG APPEARS TO BE COVERING QUITE A BIT OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS. VSBYS RANGE FROM UNDER 1/4SM TO
1+SM. KEEPING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN PLACE, AS EXPECTING
ONCE RAIN ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING THIS SHOULD DISPERSE THE
FOG SOMEWHAT, AND COVERAGE OF FOG IS NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR AN
ADVISORY BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TO PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR CONTINUAL SCATTERED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DENSER AIR IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL VA.
MID-LEVEL AIR FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS SENDING VORTICITY AND
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SUPPORT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RAIN
MAY HAVE A TEMPORARY BREAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN WITHOUT RAIN, THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FOG THROUGHOUT THE AREA WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ON THE
ROAD AND MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE A
LITTLE TROUBLESOME. SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FAR
WEST AS SOME WEAK CAPE (<250 J/KG) MAY SLIP IN THIS AS WELL. THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY HOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT BEHAVES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN TODAY AND FRIDAY (TOMORROW). GENERALLY,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
SOUTHWARD AND HIGHER AS ONE GOES NORTH. TOWARDS NC, RAIN MAY
RANGE BETWEEN 0.10-0.33". ELSEWHERE THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
VARY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TRAINING. WHILE MUCH OF THE OTHER
PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN 0.50-0.75" OF RAIN, ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST VA WILL
BE IN A WARM SPOT AND SQUISHED BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY VERY GET INTO THE MID-60S AND MID-70S BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT SENDS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN. DEW POINTS WILL BE
HEAVILY AFFECTED, AS THEY WILL GO FROM THE 40S AND 50S DOWN TO
THE 20S AND 30S. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AND GUST BETWEEN 25-35
MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH THE NEW AIR MASS,
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISPERSE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS PICK UP AS WELL.
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN CONUS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT WILL
THEN PHASE WITH A 500MB CUTOFF LOW THAT IS DIVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM, JUST BEFORE IT HEADS OFF THE COAST. ONCE OFF
THE SHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE CENTRAL LOW OUGHT
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.
THE RELEVANT IMPACTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ARE THEN AS FOLLOWS.
THE WARMER AND HUMID AIR MASS COMING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PUT
DOWN RAIN ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AND THEN REMAIN
LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ON
SUNDAY, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL LOW WILL INCREASE THE
WIND FIELD IN BOTH STRENGTH AND GEOGRAPHICAL SIZE. THAT
RESULTING INCREASE WILL CAUSE CAA, COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
CAUSING THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION TO BECOME UPSLOPE
EFFECTS. THUS RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES OF
THE MOUNTAINS, MAKING FOR A COOLER, BLUSTERY LATE WINTER DAY
MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS LESS THAN 500 FEET OVER MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT BLF
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE, WHERE THEY WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR CIGS TO
IFR ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. VSBYS WILL ALSO STAY LOW ESPECIALLY
FROM BCB/ROA TO LWB, BUT EVEN DAN/BLF COULD HAVE SUB-1SM VSBYS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING MAINLY
IMPACTING BLF/LWB POSSIBLY ROA/BCB. THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS
BETWEEN 12-18Z, AND THIS WILL CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
DURING THIS TIME. ALSO WINDS TURN WEST AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25-35KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING WITH VFR 18Z-06Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY TO PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THEN DROPPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE RAIN
ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE WIND SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE PIEDMONT SHOULD BECOME DRY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARDS TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/VFJ/WP
AVIATION...PW/WP
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