338
FXUS61 KRNK 201128
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE...
ADDED A LITTLE MORE THUNDER IN OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA AS
CONVECTION MOVES IN AHEAD OF FRONT.
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINE SNOWS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT TRAVEL THIS MORNING.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS END THIS MORNING, THEN WINDY AND CLEARING
FOR THE AFTERNOON.
3) ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS PICK UP AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FOG APPEARS TO BE COVERING QUITE A BIT OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS. VSBYS RANGE FROM UNDER 1/4SM TO
1+SM. KEEPING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN PLACE, AS EXPECTING
ONCE RAIN ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING THIS SHOULD DISPERSE THE
FOG SOMEWHAT, AND COVERAGE OF FOG IS NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR AN
ADVISORY BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS END THIS MORNING, THEN WINDY WITH
SUNSHINE.
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST PRIOR TO DAWN WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
WV AND THE ALLEGHANYS OF VA THEN SHOWERS START FADING EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE
A GENERALLY BREEZY DAY. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT COLD, SO
LOOK FOR MILD TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST. WINDS START TO DROP OFF FRIDAY
EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT MOST OF ANY RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL
DURING THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS PICK UP AS WELL.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT, MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX DOUBLE-LOW SETUP.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL UNDERGO A STEADY COOLING PROCESS THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY, BEGINNING THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. WHILE THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES GREATER THAN 1300M WOULD TYPICALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS, HIGH SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS MAY
OVERCOME THESE FACTORS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED COATINGS. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, THE AIRMASS BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF TO 1 INCH FOR
MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS,
SPECIFICALLY WESTERN GREENBRIER, HAVE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 8
INCHES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW.
AS THE TWO LOWS MERGE AND PULL AWAY OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST, THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK BACK TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES BY MONDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS CONSOLIDATION WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
LEADING TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
POOR FLYING WEATHER WITH SUB-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES EARLY THIS
PERIOD WILL BECOME VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z FOR MOST. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT LWB/BLF/ROA AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS.
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10-16KTS, WITH
GUSTS 20-35KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, FALLING BACK TO
UNDER 20KTS FRIDAY EVENING. ANTICIPATE VFR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY
BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AT
DAN/BCB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY TO PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THEN DROPPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE RAIN
ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE WIND SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE PIEDMONT SHOULD BECOME DRY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARDS TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCS/WP
AVIATION...PW/WP
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