108
FXUS61 KRNK 202328
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
628 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUMMERS CO, WV AND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF GREENBRIER COUNTY, WV FROM 1AM ON SUNDAY
THROUGH 7PM ON MONDAY. SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME MAY RANGE FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS
TRIGGERED THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER AND SUMMERS COUNTIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LESSER SNOW AND
RAIN EXPECTED IN OTHER AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LESSER SNOW AND RAIN EXPECTED IN
OTHER AREAS.
A GREAT LAKES MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ALMOST MIRROR MOVEMENTS,
MOVING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
COMBINE AND INSTIGATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION NEAR THE VA/NC ATLANTIC
COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, THE WIND FIELD WILL
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND, ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA, AND
ENHANCING UPSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SPLIT, WITH MEMBERS OF EVEN THE SAME
ENSEMBLE FALLING INTO DISTINCT CAMPS. THE FIRST CAMP HAS THE
INTENSIFYING STORM HOLD FAIRLY TIGHT TO THE COASTLINE, STAYING
CLOSER TO OUR MOUNTAINS, AND MAINTAINING UPSLOPE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION FOR A LONGER PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE EXPECTED SNOW IMPACTS. THE LATTER CAMP HAS MORE OF A WESTERLY
DRIFT, SHUTTING OFF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS EARLIER, LEADING
TO A LESS IMPACTFUL EVENT. THE FORECAST REFLECTS AN ATTEMPT TO SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE, PLACING HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5-10" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION PORTIONS OF OUR WV MOUNTAINS (W. GREENBRIER), WITH LESSER
IMPACTS EVEN ONE COUNTY EAST OF THAT, WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
EXPECTED NEARER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
IDEALLY, IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THERE WILL BE SOME MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO ALLOW A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SNOW IS THE BIG HEADLINE FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. OTHER AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL EXPERIENCE A FULLY LIQUID
RAIN EVENT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
AREAS WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER
THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT.
AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD DURING THIS ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
STRONG WIND GUSTS. RAIN OR SNOW, FOLKS CAN EXPECT TO FEEL GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH, EVEN REACHING UP TO 40 MPH ALONG RIDGES AND IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS COULD PROVE PARTICULAR DANGEROUS IN THE AREAS UNDER
A WINTER STORM WATCH AS SNOW WILL BLOW AND DRIFT, FURTHER REDUCING
VISIBILITY AND THE DANGER OF DRIVING DURING AND AFTER THE EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE, WITH
SOME TERMINALS SEEING GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL START
TO SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY, BUT CAN STILL EXPECT
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WESTERLY, THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE
PIEDMONT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD, ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
SCT TO BKN FOR MOST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z, THEN BKN TO OVC FOR
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KLWB, AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE, BUT -RA COULD REACH KDAN FOR A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
SKIES START TO CLEAR SOME WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 18Z,
THOUGH LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE, BUT WILL FILL
IN AGAIN AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
INCREASED AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT HEADING
INTO SUNDAY WITH SNOW AND RAIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN FOR THE
PIEDMONT.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IMPROVE FOR THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THANKS TO AN INCREASING VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
BRINGING A CONCLUSION TO THE PRECIPITATION AND PARTIAL ERODING
OF CLOUD COVER.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS (30 TO 40 KTS) WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ043-508.
DISCUSSION...VFJ
AVIATION...AS/DS
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