721
FXUS61 KRNK 210517
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1217 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS
TRIGGERED THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER AND SUMMERS COUNTIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LESSER SNOW AND
RAIN EXPECTED IN OTHER AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LESSER SNOW AND RAIN EXPECTED IN
OTHER AREAS.
A GREAT LAKES MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ALMOST MIRROR MOVEMENTS,
MOVING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
COMBINE AND INSTIGATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION NEAR THE VA/NC ATLANTIC
COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, THE WIND FIELD WILL
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND, ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA, AND
ENHANCING UPSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SPLIT, WITH MEMBERS OF EVEN THE SAME
ENSEMBLE FALLING INTO DISTINCT CAMPS. THE FIRST CAMP HAS THE
INTENSIFYING STORM HOLD FAIRLY TIGHT TO THE COASTLINE, STAYING
CLOSER TO OUR MOUNTAINS, AND MAINTAINING UPSLOPE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION FOR A LONGER PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE EXPECTED SNOW IMPACTS. THE LATTER CAMP HAS MORE OF A WESTERLY
DRIFT, SHUTTING OFF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS EARLIER, LEADING
TO A LESS IMPACTFUL EVENT. THE FORECAST REFLECTS AN ATTEMPT TO SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE, PLACING HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5-10" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION PORTIONS OF OUR WV MOUNTAINS (W. GREENBRIER), WITH LESSER
IMPACTS EVEN ONE COUNTY EAST OF THAT, WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
EXPECTED NEARER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
IDEALLY, IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THERE WILL BE SOME MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO ALLOW A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SNOW IS THE BIG HEADLINE FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. OTHER AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL EXPERIENCE A FULLY LIQUID
RAIN EVENT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
AREAS WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER
THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT.
AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD DURING THIS ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
STRONG WIND GUSTS. RAIN OR SNOW, FOLKS CAN EXPECT TO FEEL GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH, EVEN REACHING UP TO 40 MPH ALONG RIDGES AND IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS COULD PROVE PARTICULAR DANGEROUS IN THE AREAS UNDER
A WINTER STORM WATCH AS SNOW WILL BLOW AND DRIFT, FURTHER REDUCING
VISIBILITY AND THE DANGER OF DRIVING DURING AND AFTER THE EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXPECT WEST WINDS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR EXPECT AT
TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z/SUN. WILL SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS AT
TIMES.
AFTER 00Z/SUN, CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH IFR POTENTIAL AT
BLF. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE IN TO ALL BY 06Z/SUNDAY EXCEPT
DAN/LYH, WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
INCREASED AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO SUNDAY WITH
SNOW AND RAIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IMPROVE FOR THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THANKS TO AN INCREASING VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
BRINGING A CONCLUSION TO THE PRECIPITATION AND PARTIAL ERODING
OF CLOUD COVER.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS (30 TO 40 KTS) WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ043-508.
DISCUSSION...VFJ
AVIATION...AS/DS/WP
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