822
FXUS61 KRNK 211128
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
628 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE...
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS FOR FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
THE HIGHER RIDGES OF NC. NO HEADLINE CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT A MAINLY PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER EVENT WITH
BLUSTERY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
2) NEXT CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN IS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT AND WINDS
ENSEMBLES/DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR OUR AREA IN TERMS OF QPF/LOW LEVEL TEMPS WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE GFS STILL
REMAINS TOO HEAVY QPF WISE FOR US.
FIRST OFF, WE WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS FRIDAY, FROM GEORGIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. THIS
WILL PUSH SOME RAIN UP INTO SOUTHERN VA AND NC TODAY, THEN A
BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE NC COAST. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER MODEL WILL INFLUENCE RAIN VS SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/NAM AND CANADIAN, LENDS TO RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS, THEN COLDER AIR STARTS WRAPPING IN ALOFT AND FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW IN THE
PIEDMONT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL IMPACT ACCUMULATIONS SO OVERALL THE
RATE OF SNOWFALL WOULD HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY, SO
FOR NOW HAVE A DUSTING OR LESS.
AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN, IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT, ALL PRECIP
WILL BE SNOW, AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST, IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF DC WITH DECENT SNOWS. FOR US, WE
WILL TURN TO A NORTHWEST SNOW FLOW EVENT, WHERE THE MOUNTAINS
GET THE PLOWABLE SNOW, NAMELY WESTERN GREENBRIER DOWN TO BURKES
GARDEN AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO NC. AT THE MOMENT, PER
COORDINATION, WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER INTO SUMMERS. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD LEND TOWARD
ADVISORY LEVELS TO THE SOUTH AND JUST EAST OF THIS, BUT WILL
MAKE THAT DECISION LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS. WILL SEE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT AN OFF AND ON
AGAIN SNOW SHOWER EVENT. THE "WARMER" TEMPS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
EAT AWAY SOME ACCUMULATION, AND THE MAIN ACCUMULATING EVENT
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AS
MUCH AS AN INCH OF SNOW AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM
LEXINGTON, VA TO PULASKI, WITH UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES TOWARD
MARION/CHILHOWIE. AS USUAL, WHERE THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS SET
UP WILL BE WHERE THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE.
AS FOR THE WIND, DESPITE THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL JET IS DECENT, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF DECENT PRESSURE RISES LEADS TO A
WINDY EVENT BUT NOT QUITE ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
THE LOW STRENGTHENS SOONER AND/OR TRACKS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW
JUST EXPECT BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
AFTER ONE MORE "MILD" DAY TODAY, TEMPS CRASH BACK TO WINTER AS
MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN IS THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A
STEADY RETURN OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SETUP PRECEDES
A COLD FRONT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, WITH LIFTED
INDEX VALUES REMAINING SLIGHTLY POSITIVE, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A HALF-INCH AND AN INCH. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND THE MANAGEABLE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS, FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR WITH MID DECK THROUGH THE DAY, THEN CIGS LOWER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BEGIN
DROPPING AFTER 06Z TO IFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN, EXCEPT RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AT BLF/LWB AFTER 08Z. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE
UNDER 10KTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
POOR FLYING WEATHER SUNDAY, WITH SUB-MVFR FOR MOST, THEN SNOW
SHOWERS KICK IN AS DOES THE WIND ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT LOWER CIGS AND AT TIMES VSBYS AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TURN TO VFR
BY MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY COULD
GUST 20 TO 45 MPH, HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ043-508.
DISCUSSION...RCS/WP
AVIATION...AS/DS/WP
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