391
FXUS61 KRNK 220716
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
216 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW AMOUNTS INCREASED ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANDING THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FROM WATAUGA TO SMYTH, AND A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ROCKBRIDGE AND AMHERST. THESE ARE MAINLY DUE TO
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST
NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN AMHERST/ROCKBRIDGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS FROM WV TO NC. BLUSTERY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
2) NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NC/VA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THIS, EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF RAIN,
MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAWN. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND
RAIN EXITS MOST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST VA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THE LOW
OFFSHORE STARTS TO BOMB, AND MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK AROUND
ENDING THE PRECIP AS SNOW IN OUR CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT AND BLUE
RIDGE NORTH OF BEDFORD/LYNCHBURG. AFTERWARDS, THE SNOW SHOWER
REGIME KICKS IN IN EARNEST. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS LOOK ROBUST
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WV/FAR SW VA
MOUNTAINS WITH THE UPPER LOW, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR IN BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS.
THE TEMPS TANK TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INCREASE. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUST 30 TO 45 MPH, POSSIBLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. THIS WIND HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS.
THE WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME HARD TO MEASURE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
WE DECIDED TO ADD SMYTH TO WATAUGA INTO THE WARNING AS THINK
AREAS ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER AND THE RIDGES ABOVE THE
HOLSTON/CLINCH RIVER VALLEYS COULD SEE 5 TO 12 INCHES. PLACES
LIKE MT ROGERS ARE LIKELY TO SEE A FOOT. AMOUNTS REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME FURTHER NORTH AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SOUTHEAST WV
AND THE ADJACENT ALLEGHANIES, EXCEPT ADDING ROCKBRIDGE AND
AMHERST TO THE ADVISORY AS AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE COULD
SEE UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW, BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE AN
INCH OR LESS.
THE CABOOSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS MONDAY NIGHT SO SNOW
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
LOCAL 1 INCH+ AMOUNTS AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM THE
NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH ROANOKE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY, THE COLD AIR AND WIND WILL SEND THE
APPARENT TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS OUR WESTERN HIGHER RIDGES IN WV/NC/VA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MIDWEEK WEATHER REMAINS GENERALLY TRANQUIL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH
MAY TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
THIS CLIPPER WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, ESTABLISHING A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DRAWS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE, A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARRIVING
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S, PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL EXCLUSIVELY AS RAIN. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ROBUST FRONT,
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW; HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND COOL
PRE-FRONTAL RAIN WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE, LEAVING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, MILD TEMPERATURES WILL GRACE THE AREA THEN A
WARMING TREND RESUMES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CANDIDNESS AT MOST SITES WILL SINK TO MVFR OR LOWER LATER
THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
BLF/LWB. WHEN THAT OCCURS SHOULD EXPECT IFR AT TIMES. IFR TO
LIFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT LYH/DAN THROUGH 12-14Z, WITH VSBYS MAINLY
3-6SM.
ONCE THE MAIN LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST, PRECIP SHOULD END IN THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT THE LOWER
CIGS FROM ROA EAST BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH LYH COULD
HANG ONTO SUB-VFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY BLF/LWB WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF THE REGION, WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS BY 00Z ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS 20-35KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT LOWER CIGS AND AT TIMES VSBYS AT BLF/LWB THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR. NORTHWEST
WINDS INTO MONDAY COULD GUST 20 TO 45 MPH, HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKELY
FOR SUB-VFR WITH RAIN WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
VAZ009-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ010-011-
020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ024-035.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
DISCUSSION...RCS/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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