844
FXUS61 KRNK 221952
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
252 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND WV/VA BORDER COUNTIES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE UNCHANGED WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM, THOUGH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL
IS NOW A TAD LATER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL IMPACT THE BLUE RIDGE AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
2) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH ARRIVES
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL IMPACT THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR WESTERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EVEN INTO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM COASTAL STORM WILL
ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL ALSO TREND WINDIER AND COLDER WITH TIME.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT
GAINS LATITUDE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS RESULTING
IN RAIN FOR OUR EASTERN CWA...THIS RAIN SOON TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES FALL THIS EVENING. COLD AIR IS ALREADY CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND WOULD EXPECT A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR SOUTHSIDE
VA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION FOR OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY WARM, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO TRAVEL FOR SOUTHSIDE. FARTHER WEST HOWEVER IT
WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY PER THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE BLUE
RIDGE PARKWAY SHOULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW, IN ADDITION TO
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS EVEN FARTHER WEST WHERE A PERSISTENT
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW IS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COASTAL STORM AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS PERSISTENT, MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE SNOW BANDS CONTAINING BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH AN HOUR RATES ALONG THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE. THIS IS WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES ARE FAVORED, AND WHERE WE
HAVE WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET, BEECH MOUNTAIN, MOUNT RODGERS, FLAT TOP MTN, AND THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF WV ARE WITHIN THE FAVORED AREA TO
RECEIVE THESE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. JUST DOWN RANGE OF THESE
HIGHER PEAKS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES.
AS THE COASTAL STORM BOMBS OFFSHORE TONIGHT EXPECT STRONG CROSS
BARRIER WIND FLOW TO DEVELOP, ALONG WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB WINDS (WINDS 3-5KFT AGL) OF 50 KTS ARE
PROGGED FROM SUNSET THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND MINUS 12 DEG C. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH NEAR THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES WHERE MECHANICAL MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE
AND TURBULENT EDDIES WILL REACH THE SURFACE. DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTAIN THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS. AS FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOOKING FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S IN THE PIEDMONT. WIND CHILLS
NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE CABOOSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS MONDAY NIGHT SO SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THEN. THE COLD WILL STICK AROUND AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR ZERO WIND CHILLS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM,
WHICH ARRIVES THURSDAY.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL PUSH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY ADVECTION OF MOISTURE TO OCCUR OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, AROUND
25-35 MPH AREA-WIDE, WITH RIDGETOPS SEEING 40+ MPH GUSTS ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TRAVERSE EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
STRENGTHEN. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PAST THIS POINT AS IT CONTINUES EAST, BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING IMPACTS
TO OUR AREA.
A WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR
AREA. THIS RAIN WILL HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND NEGATE THE
SEVERE THREAT, DESPITE THE STRONG FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSING OF
THE FRONT, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY, AS WPC HAS LABELED THE AREA AS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FROPA IS NOW SLIGHTLY LATER,
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, ENOUGH FOR A
FEW UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WV LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE GROUND WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM. WARMER AIR QUICKLY RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE BOTH WITH TIME AND
GEOGRAPHICALLY. INCONSISTENT PATCHES OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT EVERY TAF SITE TODAY. ANYTHING WEST OF BCB/ROA WILL SEE
SNOW, WHILE EAST COULD SEE RAIN, WITH A CHANCE AT SNOW FLURRIES
LATER. SOME SNOW BURSTS COULD BE HEAVY FOR A SHORT PERIOD, EVEN
WHERE ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS CAN CAUSE QUICK DROPS
IN VSBY THAT MAY NOT BE REPRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL TAF, AS THEY
MAY LAST ONLY A FEW MINUTES. ALMOST ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END
BY AROUND 06 - 08Z ON THE 23RD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLF/LWB,
WHO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WELL INTO
MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR BLF/LWB WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW, AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS
COULD OCCUR CONCURRENT WITH SNOW. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY NOT ONLY HORIZONTALLY, BUT VERTICALLY AS
WELL. MORE ABOUT WINDS BELOW.
ALMOST ALL SITES WILL REMAIN BELOW VFR DUE TO LOW CIGS. A FEW BREAKS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, BUT THEY USUALLY FILL BACK IN QUICKLY.
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA.
PEAK SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TOWARDS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC, WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 45 KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY MORNING. ALL
WINDS WILL BE STRICTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT LOWER CIGS AND AT TIMES VSBYS AT BLF/LWB THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR. NORTHWEST
WINDS INTO MONDAY COULD GUST 20 TO 45 MPH, HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKELY
FOR SUB-VFR WITH RAIN WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
VAZ009-015.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ010-011-
020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ024-035.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ001-018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ002-003.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
DISCUSSION...JCB/PM
AVIATION...VFJ
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