783
FXUS61 KRNK 230721
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
221 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE UNCHANGED WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE VA BLUE RIDGE AND
WV/VA BORDER COUNTIES ARE UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL IMPACT THE BLUE RIDGE AND SURROUNDING AREAS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
2) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH ARRIVES
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL IMPACT THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR WESTERN MOST
COUNTIES WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD
IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT GAINS LATITUDE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM IS PULLING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES, WHILE MOUNT ROGERS AND
BURKES GARDEN COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES. AREAS FROM SUMMERS
COUNTY, WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW.
AS THE COASTAL STORM BOMBS OFFSHORE TONIGHT, A STRONG CROSS-
BARRIER WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONGSIDE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR.
WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL MAY REACH 50 KNOTS, WHILE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT PLUMMET TO -12°C. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SURFACE
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH, PARTICULARLY ALONG MOUNTAIN
RIDGETOPS WHERE MECHANICAL MIXING AND TURBULENT EDDIES WILL BE
MOST INTENSE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE STARTING IN
THE TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE 20S IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH
WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN GREENBRIER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM,
WHICH ARRIVES THURSDAY.
MIDWEEK WEATHER REMAINS GENERALLY TRANQUIL, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER LIGHT, SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. AS
THE CLIPPER EXITS, IT WILL NUDGE HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, ESTABLISHING A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DRAWS
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY, SPREADING STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THURSDAY.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BECAUSE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL
PERSIST, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. DESPITE THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS ROBUST FRONT, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRE-
FRONTAL RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE, LEAVING GUSTY
WINDS AND STEADY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY BEFORE
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND RESUMES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BOTH BLF AND LWB WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER MVFR TO OCCASIONAL
IFR RESTRICTIONS AS PERIODS OF SNOW, WITH BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LOOK TO COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
RETURNING SHORTLY AFTER SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END. AN
ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR BLF/LWB WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
BLOWING SNOW, AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS COULD OCCUR
CONCURRENT WITH SNOW. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY NOT ONLY HORIZONTALLY, BUT VERTICALLY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ALL TERMINALS,
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS FOR PIEDMONT TERMINALS, AND 30 TO 40
KNOTS FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
TOWARDS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC, WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 KT ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE GUSTS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFTER 00
UTC TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THURSDAY
LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR SUB-VFR WITH RAIN WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-015.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ010>014-
016>020-022>024-032>035-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ010-011-
020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ024-
035.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002-003.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
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