165
FXUS61 KRNK 240031
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
AVIATION UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPSLOPE SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FROM
NW NC INTO SE WV.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UPSLOPE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
2) LATE WEEK SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UPSLOPE SNOW, GUSTY WINDS, AND COLD TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
CONTINUED WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING A DECENT
FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, AS
WELL AS SOME HINTS OF HEAVIER BANDS EVIDENT BY COOLER CLOUD TOPS
OVER WEST VIRGINIA. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SNOW IN FAVORED
WESTERN AREAS THROUGH SUNSET, WITH FLURRIES SPILLING OVER AS FAR
EAST AS THE I81 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
UPSLOPE STRATUS MAY LINGER ALL NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
TRENDED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ARE UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING, WITH EVEN SPOTS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. COLD
TONIGHT WITH 20S AND TEENS COMMON...WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
AS A RESULT OF THE COASTAL STORM TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY, A STRONG CROSS-BARRIER WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, GUSTING INTO THE 30 TO OCCASIONALLY 40
MPH AT TIMES. THESE WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS FLOW
WEAKENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LATE WEEK SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
AREA.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL PUSH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35+ MPH POSSIBLE. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL
ADVECT IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MIDWEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW, AS THEY NOW HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, IT WILL CUT DOWN ON THE RAINFALL TOTALS,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF US-460. DUE TO THIS SHIFT IN TRACK, A WARM
FRONT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE, WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WILL LIKELY
BE SOUTH OF US-460, THOUGH AREA-WIDE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.75", WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE TOTALS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS LOW AS WELL,
DUE TO SOME MODELS SHOWING THE FROPA MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WITH
OTHERS DELAYING IT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CLEARS OUT BY FRIDAY
MORNING, THOUGH A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH RAIN IN
WEST VIRGINIA. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY, AND TEMPERATURES COOL
OFF A FEW DEGREES, BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WARMER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THESE SHOW SHOWERS AT BCB, BLF, AND
LWB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT, MVFR TO IFR CIGS DON'T LOOK TO END
FOR BLF AND LWB UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS WHEN CIGS LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. BCB SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT ONCE
THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS; HOWEVER, THEY WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, AND ALSO TRANSITIONING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20-30 KNOTS AT
TIMES, BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK, AND LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS BY 18 UTC TUESDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL SIMILARLY DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY 18 UTC
ON TUESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOR WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND LLWS TO WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR SUB-VFR WITH RAIN WITH THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ010-011-
020.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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