742
FXUS61 KRNK 240906
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END THIS MORNING. ROADS
WILL BE SLICK FOR THIS MORNING'S COMMUTE. WHILE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED IN THE NEXT HOUR, A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SLICK MORNING TRAVEL.
GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC FOR
THURSDAY/DAY 3 HAS BEEN REMOVED. WE MAY SEE SOME MINOR,
ISOLATED IMPACTS, MAINLY NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING, BUT LOW SOIL
MOISTURE AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MITIGATE ANY WORSE OR MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY, AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5" TO
1.0".
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SINKS SW. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
CHANGE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND CUT OFF THE LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GREAT LAKES. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY DECREASE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20S
TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE REGION WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S, EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING.
WE WILL ONLY HAVE A BRIEF RESPITE HOWEVER AS CLOUDS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES, WE WILL
SEE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE FOOTHILLS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH AS ONE TO
TWO INCHES OVER THE GREENBRIER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35+ MPH POSSIBLE, TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING. THIS FLOW
WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY, AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5" TO
1.0".
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US, THEN
TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. MODELS
VARY ON THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS FEATURE, BUT MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT
THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONSENSUS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WITH THE GEFS AND
ITS AI COUNTERPART SHOWING THE LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, BUT FASTER THAN THE EURO AND
CANADIAN. HOWEVER, THE EURO ENSEMBLE IS STILL SHOWING DECENT
SPREAD FOR THE LOW TRACK AMONGST ITS MEMBERS, THOUGH STILL
KEEPING IT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING, SO EXPECTING ONLY A RAIN
EVENT AT THIS TIME.
WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS
IT DRAWS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.75" TO 1.00" BY THURSDAY, WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE 90TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. NBM PROBABILITIES
OF 24 HR RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OF 1.00" OR
GREATER ARE BETWEEN 35 T0 40% GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-77,
AND 50% OR HIGHER AREAWIDE FOR AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAIN. HOWEVER,
THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES IS BETWEEN 1.0"
TO 1.5" (EG. 10TH PERCENTILE OF 24 HR RAIN IS 0.0" AND 90TH
PERCENTILE IS 1.6" FOR BLACKSBURG VA). PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE AREA, SO A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD NOTABLY CHANGE
THE FORECAST AMOUNTS. IF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS PAN OUT, MAY
SEE SOME LIMITED FLOODING IMPACTS, MAINLY SOME PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS AND IN DITCHES. THAT BEING SAID, SOIL MOISTURE IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, PER THE NASA SPORT
LIS, SO THIS RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE BENEFICIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN FOR MOST
OF THE DAY, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
WITH SOME VFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WHILE
SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO COME TO AN END, MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
LINGER FOR BLF AND LWB UNTIL MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND OR BEFORE 12Z. LATE TONIGHT, CEILINGS
BEGIN TO BEGIN TO DROP TO SUB-VFR ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO THE MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT GUSTS, ONLY
TO ABOUT 15 KTS DURING THE DAY. INCREASING WSW FLOW AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY BEGINNING BEFORE 12Z. LLWS MAY BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRATUS TO THE AREA.
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK VFR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ007-009-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ010-011-020.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042-043-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ044-507.
DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...SH
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