405
FXUS61 KRNK 241825
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
125 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH JUST SOME
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CLOUDS CONTINUING.
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
LESSENED SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE.
2) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING DOWN. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER
SCALE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE FAVORED WESTERN MOUNTAINS
FROM TAZEWELL AND NORTH INTO WESTERN GREENBRIER. PERHAPS A BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR EAST AS THE I81 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT
OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, SNOW MAY FALL FOR
JUST A FEW HOURS, WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, STILL
COULD SEE A COATING FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS, AND UP TO 2 INCHES
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER. THIS EVENT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY HEADLINES.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE, ALSO EXPECTING AN INCREASE
IN A 850MB JET BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT
ALIGNMENT WITH 40 TO 50KTS ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 35MPH RANGE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHER END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED GUST RANGE WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING DOWN. FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
IT WILL BE A DREARY, WET DAY ON THURSDAY, AS HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA, WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE
AREA MIDWEEK. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN IN WEST VIRGINIA
INITIALLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT. ONE BIG CHANGE
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY OF A WEAKER SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED, WITH THE HEAVIEST MOISTURE NOW STAYING MOSTLY OFF TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS CHANGE IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOT BEING AS
AMPLIFIED AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WHILE THIS WILL NOT CHANGE OUR
WEATHER WITH RAIN STILL FORECAST, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE LOWERED ONCE
AGAIN.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH AREA-WIDE, WITH 0.75-1.00" STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NC/VA
MOUNTAINS. THESE TOTALS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE HIGH IF THE TREND DOWN
CONTINUES. DUE TO THIS DROP IN TOTALS, THERE IS NO LONGER A RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A
LONGER PERIOD WITH LESS INTENSITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES
COULD STILL ARISE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY SNOW
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SNOW MELTS AND RUNS INTO STREAMS
AND RIVERS IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. RAIN SHOWERS END
FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT LINGER IN THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS.
ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT FRIDAY, A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS IN STORE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. THIS
IS SHORT-LIVED, AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED GREATLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW FINALLY ENDING. ALL TERMINALS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR,
WITH MAINLY JUST SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT, A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT NEARLY ALL TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY, SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED AT LWB/BLF WHERE
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR ARE LIKELY. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS, THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. SUB-VFR IS LIKELY
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY, WITH FAIR WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB
AVIATION...BMG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page