533
FXUS61 KRNK 250639
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
139 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WEEKEND WARMTH STILL LOOKS ON TAP.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME SIGNALS FOR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE WORK
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS, RAIN/SNOW MIX
UP TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY EARLY TODAY, ENDING BY THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
2. WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWN AGAIN.
3. WARMER THIS WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE THE NICEST
DAY.
4. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK. SOME SIGNALS FOR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS, RAIN/SNOW
MIX UP TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY EARLY TODAY, ENDING BY THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A LARGE 500MB TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION EARLY TODAY, BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY UNTIL ABOUT
MIDDAY, LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GIVEN THE FAST PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM, UP TO 2.0" IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV AND UP TO
HALF AN INCH ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST WV AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VA.
RAINFALL MAY BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. EVEN AFTER
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END LATER, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.
AN 850MB JET UP TO 50 KNOTS DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35
MPH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, AS
THE JET FADES AFTER IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWN AGAIN.
THE 500MB PATTERN STARTS TO AMPLIFY, WITH SOME TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN US AND SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY, AND PUSHES A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT GETS INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGIONS, DRAWING SOME
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THIS SYSTEM AS A WHOLE HAS TRENDED WEAKER,
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOT AS STRONG AND THE GREATER MOISTURE NOT
QUITE MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN.
THEREFORE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER, TO NOW BETWEEN A
QUARTER INCH NORTH OF US 460 UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TOWARDS
THE VA/NC BORDER. SOME PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NC MAY
SEE UP TO AN INCH.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BY FRIDAY MORNING,
BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH MAY SEE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. DESPITE
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, RAIN WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH ALMOST ALL DAY
THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL TAMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY, SO HAVE GONE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FLOODING, GIVEN THE
LOWERING RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOODING IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IF THOSE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SEEN RECENT SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMER THIS WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE THE NICEST
DAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE IN BROAD TROUGHING, WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIPPING TO OUR SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW,
AND A MUCH MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AFFECTING CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN STATES. THERE ARE SOME INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY SATURDAY, AS FRIDAY'S
FRONTAL SYSTEM SINKS SOUTH AND SPINS UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THAT SAID, HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
OFFER ONLY MINOR IMPACTS EARLY, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MORNING
CLOUDS.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUDS SHOULD BE WANING WITH WEDGING
RETREATING NORTHWARD, AND WE WILL BE QUITE WARM COMPARED TO RECENT
STANDARDS AND NORMALS. THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850MB
TEMPERATURES HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING +5C OR MORE,
RESULTING IN A NEAR 100% PROBABILITY THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE 55F FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
ON SUNDAY, SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FURTHER OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND SPILL OVER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS IT DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL THEN WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND THE BLUE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, INCREASING
CLOUDS, AND DROPPING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY SEE A 55-90%
LIKELIHOOD OF WARMING TO 55F OR HIGHER, WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
INCREASING THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE TRAVELS INTO SOUTHWEST VA
AND NORTHWEST NC.
KEY MESSAGE 4: CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME SIGNALS FOR FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE WORK WEEK.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK, WESTERLY FLOW TIGHTENS UP
AND BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SEE A STEADY STREAM
OF UPPER LEVEL PVA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, IN ADDITION TO BEING
CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM. COLD AIR DAMMING ATTEMPTS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE, AND THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE AREA
TO BRING PERIODS OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY, WHILE PLAIN RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, SNOW CHANCES SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY TO LYNCHBURG AND
NORTHEAST, WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE STRONGEST.
TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50"
OR SO, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE AREA. ANY SNOW LOOKS
LIGHT FOR OUR AREA, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR OVER AN 1" PER 24
HOURS FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARDS STAUNTON AND DC. IT IS POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES AS WELL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, AND IF SO THIS WOULD BE MORE CONCERNING THAN THE
SNOW. SOME ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING ABOUT A 15-30% CHANCE FOR MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OF FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE OF +7 TO +9F THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 850MB. WHILE
THIS IS NOT MUCH FREEZING PRECIPITATION, IT COULD CAUSE ISSUES ON
ROADWAYS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN
AREAWIDE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY LOW END
VFR, BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AS THE SNOW SHOWERS REACH KLWB AND KBLF. SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH AS
FAR EAST AS KBCB, BUT THINKING MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE
NEW RIVER VALLEY.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL WANE BY 18Z TODAY, BUT BKN TO OVC SKIES LAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT 00Z THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CEILINGS SPREAD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z, AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. KBLF WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST
TERMINAL TO FALL MVFR TO IFR, AROUND 00Z, THEN REACHING KBCB
AROUND 04Z OR SO. RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THOSE TERMINALS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME LLWS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT 14Z.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RAIN WILL REACH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, LEADING TO A RAINY AND CLOUDY DAY FOR
THE AREA WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN LINGERS INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR RETURNS TO THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...AS
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