200
FXUS61 KRNK 260026
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
UPDATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER
NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER FOR THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT, HAVE INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
WEATHER ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWN AGAIN.
2. AFTER A PLEASANT WEEKEND, WINTER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE REGION ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND, SOUTHWEST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
OVERSPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
QUICKLY EXITING EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN COMING TO AN
END. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
0.25" TO 0.75" TOTAL. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER
NORTH. NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER A PLEASANT WEEKEND, WINTER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S WITH SOME PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT APPROACHING 70 DEGREES SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM CANADA. THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US, AND WILL WEDGE DOWN EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA. THE WEDGE KEEPS CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S/40S. AT THE UPPER- LEVELS, ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST FOR THE EASTERN CONUS, BUT A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. AS THE MOISTURE MOVES
EAST, IT WILL RIDE OVER THE COLD SURFACE WEDGE, CAUSING A WINTRY
MIX. WHERE EXACTLY THIS OCCURS ALONG THE EAST COAST IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, AS MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW STRONG THE WEDGE WILL BE AND
WHAT TRACK THE SURFACE LOW TAKES. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH
THE SETUP BEING FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT, POPS ARE KEPT AROUND 60%. THE SYSTEM LAST THROUGH
LATE MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY,
AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS THE WEDGE
LINGERS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN DETAILS, BUT WINTER WEATHER
CHANCES ARE INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUIETER WEATHER AND A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT, THOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE FILLING IN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RAIN EXPECTED.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING NEAR BLF/LWB IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL TAPER OFF
RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST.
AS THE BULK OF THE RAINSTORM COVERS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
CIGS TO DROP PRETTY LOW, CAUSING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE RAIN
LETS UP, CIGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK ABOVE 3KFT AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10KTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS. THESE WINDS WILL CALM AS THEY COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR FRIDAY, PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND
WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR RETURNING TO THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB/VFJ
AVIATION...BMG/VFJ
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