453
FXUS61 KRNK 260613
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WEEKEND WARMTH STILL LOOKS ON TAP.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN AMOUNTS, PRECIPITATION
TYPE, AND TIMING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) SATURDAY STILL LOOKING QUITE WARM.
3) A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH FOR EXACT
P-TYPES, AMOUNTS, AND TIMING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM POORLY DEFINED LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE TN VALLEY REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD
RAIN FROM KY THROUGH PARTS OF VA AND NC AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST. ACCOMPANYING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY SW
WINDS WERE HELPING TO PUSH ADDITIONAL WARM AND MOIST INTO THE
REGION. STEADY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING PWATS WILL
HELP SUSTAIN RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH, BRINGING AN END
TO RAIN IN OUR AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN WV, TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460, TO CLOSER TO AN INCH OR MORE FOR NORTHWEST NC AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. PLENTY OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP THE SENSIBLE WEATHER MUGGY AND WARM TODAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S FOR SOUTHWEST WV TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR NORTHWEST NC. CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT LATE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SATURDAY STILL LOOKING QUITE WARM.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE MID ATLANTIC AREA WILL STILL BE IN BROAD
TROUGHING ALOFT, WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIPPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW, AND A MUCH MORE ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM AFFECTING CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY. THIS ALONG WITH A WESTERLY
LLJ WILL SUPPORT WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH FOR EXACT
P-TYPES, AMOUNTS, AND TIMING.
AFTER A PLEASANT, NEARLY SPRING-LIKE WEEKEND, A COLDER PATTERN
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA, AS 500MB TROUGHING BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN US. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK, WITH COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPING FOR THE AREA. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD, SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
PACIFIC IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION, AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN
DETERMINING THE P-TYPES FOR THIS SYSTEM, AND WHERE SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DO NOT HAVE
THE WEDGE SETTING UP UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN,
AND SOME ARE PAINTING A STRONGER CAD SCENARIO. THAT SAID, THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR
THE AREA, NEARLY 10 DEGREES OR MORE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WHICH DOES NOT LEND MUCH
CONFIDENCE TO P-TYPES AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, BUT THEN HOW QUICKLY THE CAD ERODES
TUESDAY AND HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MODELS
DO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY OVERRUNS THE COLDER AIR, WHICH DOES MEAN SOME FREEZING
RAIN FOR THE AREA. THERE IS A 20% TO 35% PROBABILITY FROM THE
NBM FOR 48 HR FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 0.10" THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. THE NBM ALSO
HAS A 30% TO 45% PROBABILITY OF 48 HR SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST 1.0"
NORTH OF US-460. OVERALL, THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM
SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS A 40% TO 60% OF MINOR WINTER IMPACTS
(MEANING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS) ON TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA EAST OF I-77.
IN SUMMARY, THERE LOOKS TO BE PERIODS OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN,
AND SNOW FOR THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST OF THE
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM,
AND THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE CAD PATTERN, WHICH HAVE
DOWNSTREAM IMPLICATIONS ON P- TYPES AND AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
THAT POINT, THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA, TAKING MOST
OF THE RAIN WITH IT. SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE AND STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT SOME MODELS ARE BULLISH AND DO
NOT IMPROVE CEILINGS MUCH BEFORE THEY DROP AGAIN AT NIGHTFALL,
DUE TO A LACK OF A COLD FRONTAL PUSH. THIS SEEMED LIKE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO AS MOISTURE GETS STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION. WE
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING IF THIS SCENARIO
HOLDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR PERSIST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...SH
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