223
FXUS61 KRNK 261835
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
135 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN IS COMING TO AN END. TAPERED ANY FURTHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN AMOUNTS, PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND TIMING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
2) A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH FOR EXACT P-TYPES,
AMOUNTS, AND TIMING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
RAINFALL COVERAGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LESSEN, AND WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO DO SO MOVING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY CREEPING SOUTH, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE SERVICE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH THOUGH FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH, REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST, ADVECTING WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CLEARING SKIES AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
A POWERFUL 1040 MB HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ANCHOR OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY, WEDGING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THIS WEDGE,
FORECAST MODELS REMAIN DIVIDED ON ITS EXACT STRENGTH AND THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY, THE HIGH-
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, ALLOWING A
WARM FRONT TO GLIDE OVER THE STUBBORN COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS MOIST, WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH BEFORE LIKELY
STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE INTENSITY OF THE
WARM NOSE WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHETHER THE
REGION SEES SNOW, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE A BUBBLE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO LOCK IN COLD
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE, CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A EVENTUAL
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS LONG AS THE WEDGE HOLDS FIRM.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW CIGS AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. RAIN TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
LIFT. HOWEVER, BKN/OVC SKIES WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL
SCATTER OUT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST TERMINALS FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/RCS
AVIATION...BMG
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