409
FXUS61 KRNK 141036
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
636 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AN IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT ON MONDAY AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH. PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH WINTRY
WEATHER AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PLUMMET TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIMITED FIRE
CONCERNS TODAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
3) COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIMITED FIRE CONCERNS TODAY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH EJECTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES.
AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY.
DAYTIME MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE.
FINE FUELS ARE NOW PLENTY DRY GIVEN A FULL DAY OF DRYING
YESTERDAY, BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, RAPID FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. USE CAUTION IF
BURNING TODAY AS GRASS AND LEAF LITTER WILL BE EASY TO IGNITE
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG HYBRID WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND TRIGGER PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION, COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, IS
LIKELY TO ANCHOR THE COLD AIR LONGER THAN MANY MODELS CURRENTLY
PREDICT. HOWEVER, A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FALLING PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD FINALLY ERODE THE WEDGE
SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL THEN DRIVE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, SUPPORTING A
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH. SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT, THOUGH EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
WHERE THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE BOUNDARY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY PLACED THE AREA UNDER AN
ENHANCED RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
THE TEMPERATURE SWING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DRAMATIC, WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGING FROM +10C IN THE MORNING TO -10C BY
EVENING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD START MONDAY IN THE MID-50S
BEFORE CRASHING INTO THE MID-30S BY SUNSET. COLDER AIR WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO TRIGGER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,000 FEET. RAPID PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER
30KTS FROM THE WNW. WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AFTER
DAYBREAK. SOME DAYTIME MIXING WILL INCREASE WINDS SOMEWHAT AGAIN
BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 20KTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN
BY TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/RCS
AVIATION...BMG
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