486
FXUS61 KRNK 141858
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INTRODUCED POTENTIAL FOR PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH. MAIN CRUX OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS STILL ANTICIPATED
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MONDAY.
SEVERE RISK FOR MONDAY UNCHANGED. ALSO ON-TRACK FOR PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH WINTRY WEATHER AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
2) COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY
AND BECOME CENTERED FROM WI TO THE ARK-LA-TEX BY 12Z/8AM
MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE IA/MO
BORDER TO LOWER MI, DEEPENING SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS, ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-MS TO THE OH VALLEYS...THEN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC (OUR
CWA) MONDAY.
AS THE WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM, EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION
SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY FOR
ANY WEATHER SURPRISES AS THE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR
ROTATING STORM CELLS EVEN PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FRONT
ON MONDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
FOR MONDAY, THE POTENT FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...TRAVERSING THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPEED/POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT, AS WELL AS THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
PRODUCING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OF RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS
COINCIDING WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A FEW TORNADOES. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION, A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NC/VA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MANY
MODELS FORECAST 300-500 M2/S2 SRH, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SBCAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG, WHICH IS CLEARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL SINK QUICKLY BEHIND MONDAY'S COLD FRONT. IT WILL
FEEL AS IF THE SEASON HAS CHANGED ENTIRELY IN THE COURSE OF A FEW
HOURS, AS WE MOVE FROM THE 60S WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
INTO THE 30S AND 30S, WITH SNOW FLURRIES, OR IN THE CASE OF HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCALES IN SOUTHEASTERN WV, AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO ABOUT 2 OR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST, WITH
A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FALLING INTO THE TEENS.
MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE OF MORE INTEREST TO SOME, HOWEVER, AS ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINS THAT THE STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED POST-FRONT
COULD DRIVE SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE RESTRAINED TO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER, SUMMERS AND MERCER COUNTIES. THESE
ARE THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT EXHIBIT A >50% CHANCE OF 1"
ACCUMULATION. SNOW MAY REACH FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE,
BUT IT WILL BE EITHER FLURRIES OR SNIZZLE, MELTING ON CONTACT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING
BY SUNSET. THERE IS SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS PRESENT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE...BASES ABOVE 15KFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...MVFR CIG DEVELOPING. NO RESTRICTION TO VSBY
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SCATTERED PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CIG LOWERING TO IFR. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING,
THEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECEDED BY A SOLID
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNPOUR OF RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LLWS AND TURBULENCE. RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/VFJ
AVIATION...PM
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