884
FXUS61 KRNK 142337
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
INTRODUCED POTENTIAL FOR PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH. MAIN CRUX OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS STILL ANTICIPATED
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MONDAY.
SEVERE RISK FOR MONDAY UNCHANGED. ALSO ON-TRACK FOR PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH WINTRY WEATHER AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY, WITH
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
2) COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY
AND BECOME CENTERED FROM WI TO THE ARK-LA-TEX BY 12Z/8AM
MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE IA/MO
BORDER TO LOWER MI, DEEPENING SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS, ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-MS TO THE OH VALLEYS...THEN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC (OUR
CWA) MONDAY.
AS THE WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM, EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION
SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY FOR
ANY WEATHER SURPRISES AS THE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR
ROTATING STORM CELLS EVEN PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FRONT
ON MONDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
FOR MONDAY, THE POTENT FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...TRAVERSING THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPEED/POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT, AS WELL AS THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
PRODUCING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OF RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS
COINCIDING WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A FEW TORNADOES. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION, A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NC/VA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MANY
MODELS FORECAST 300-500 M2/S2 SRH, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SBCAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG, WHICH IS CLEARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL SINK QUICKLY BEHIND MONDAY'S COLD FRONT. IT WILL
FEEL AS IF THE SEASON HAS CHANGED ENTIRELY IN THE COURSE OF A FEW
HOURS, AS WE MOVE FROM THE 60S WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
INTO THE 30S AND 40S, WITH SNOW FLURRIES, OR IN THE CASE OF
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCALES IN SOUTHEASTERN WV, AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO ABOUT 2 OR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FALLING INTO THE
TEENS.
MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE OF MORE INTEREST TO SOME, HOWEVER, AS ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINS THAT THE STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED POST-FRONT
COULD DRIVE SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE RESTRAINED TO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER, SUMMERS AND MERCER COUNTIES. THESE
ARE THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT EXHIBIT A >50% CHANCE OF 1"
ACCUMULATION. SNOW MAY REACH FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE,
BUT IT WILL BE EITHER FLURRIES OR SNIZZLE, MELTING ON CONTACT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. SOME
CIRROSTRATUS OBSERVED NOW, BUT CEILINGS ARE ABOVE 10KFT. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO BKN TO OVC
SKIES BY 15Z AREAWIDE. CEILINGS DROP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY
THAT SAME TIME, TO THE 2KFT TO 5KFT RANGE, AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE LOWERING
TO LESS THAN 2KFT AFTER 18Z. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AFTER MID MORNING, GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LLWS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 22Z SUNDAY, AND COULD IMPACT
THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS.
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH
EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY, NOT REACHING THE SOUTHEAST
WV TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 22Z. MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES AFTER
THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD (WHICH ENDS 00Z MONDAY), BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THAN THAT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY, CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING, THEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECEDED BY A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE
A DOWNPOUR OF RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT, HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LLWS
AND TURBULENCE. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY CAUSE THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/VFJ
AVIATION...AS/PM
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