318
FXUS61 KRNK 151931
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
331 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA,
BEGINNING TONIGHT WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE, EXPANDING TO
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY.
GENERAL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 29 FROM LYNCHBURG TO DANVILLE
AND AREAS TO THE EAST MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NC AND
SOUTHSIDE VA. WINDS ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE.
2) STRONG FRONT MONDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AREAWIDE.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
3) COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CLOUDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE TONIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NC AND
SOUTHSIDE VA. WINDS ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE.
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY OFF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST BUT EXPECT A SHALLOW IN-SITU WEDGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCING UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS THERE.
TONIGHT, THE WIND ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING MID-CONUS STORM
SYSTEM, AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE
ROBUST SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. MODELS SHOW WEDGE ERODING OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS TO
THE SOUTH, BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT CAN BE HARD TO ERODE THE
WEDGE AT NIGHT, THOUGH THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WINS OUT. EVEN SO, STILL HAVE
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT MONDAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO
NC MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA, BUT
THIS IS MAINLY FOR ANY POTENTIAL WEDGE FRONT INDUCED
WIND/TORNADO OCCURRENCES. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS LIKE HIGHER THREAT
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF US TONIGHT ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NC.
WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT PER STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ, SO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY GENERALLY WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE OVERNIGHT FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG FRONT MONDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
AREAWIDE. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY, THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A POTENT NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE ATMOSPHERIC LIFTING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
WHILE A 50-KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROVIDES
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR AND BUOYANCY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
INITIALLY SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHERE LIGHTNING MAY
BE LIMITED BUT RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MORE ROBUST, DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) IS LIKELY TO
ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE LINE. REFLECTING THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN REGION UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5), THE FOOTHILLS IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) AND THE PIEDMONT IN A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5).
WINDS FIELDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED TO REACH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH. THE LLJ ALOFT INCREASES TO 50 KTS SO WATCH FOR
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH MOMENTUM MIX DOWN FROM
SHOWERS AND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THEIR OWN WIND POTENTIAL AND WILL
RESERVE WORDING FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 58 MPH FOR CONVECTIVE
WARNINGS. IN GENERAL ONCE THE FRONT HAS PASSED, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH, THEN RAMP BACK UP AGAIN WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION MONDAY EVENING. THAT SAID, WILL MAINTAIN A WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINE UNTIL THE WINDS DIMINISH AFTER THE COLD SURGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO START IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CRASHING INTO THE LOW TO MID-30S
BY EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSES. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS TRANSITION COULD
AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
WHERE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR TURN TO ALL SNOW. BY MIDNIGHT, SNOW
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES, WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE PEAKS AND WINDWARD
SLOPES, WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKELY SEE A DUSTING TO HALF OF AN
INCH.
RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
PLUMMETED TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH LOW TO MID-20S EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BITTER WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 0F AND 10F ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL FEEL LIKE 15F TO 20F. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
THE LOW TO MID-40S TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CURRENTLY, MOST SITES REMAIN IN A CLOUDY VFR STATUS. CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND LOWER, HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL START TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS EVENING, WITH SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS BEING THE DOMINANT DIRECTION, GUSTING UP TO
20- 30KT AT THE SURFACE. HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SITES WILL BE
ON THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING AS WELL, SPREADING TO
AFFECT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WILL BE PATCHIER COME MONDAY MORNING, BUT WE WILL BE AWAITING A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST
OF BCB/ROA. AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE LIKELY BE IMPACTED AT
TIMES. ALL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNPOUR OF RAIN AND A
WIND SHIFT, HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LLWS AND TURBULENCE. RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE THE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ011>020-022>024-032>035-043.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR VAZ044>047-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-009-010.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ001>003-018-019.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ044-
507.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
WVZ042-043-508.
DISCUSSION...PM/RCS/WP
AVIATION...VFJ
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