235
FXUS61 KRNK 160105
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
905 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT, THE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE, WITH THE ADVISORY EXPANDING TO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE ON MONDAY.
GENERAL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 29 FROM LYNCHBURG TO DANVILLE AND
AREAS TO THE EAST MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NC AND
SOUTHSIDE VA. WINDS ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE.
2) STRONG FRONT MONDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AREAWIDE.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
3) COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CLOUDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE TONIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NC AND
SOUTHSIDE VA. WINDS ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE.
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY OFF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST BUT EXPECT A SHALLOW IN-SITU WEDGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCING UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS THERE.
TONIGHT, THE WIND ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING MID-CONUS STORM
SYSTEM, AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE
ROBUST SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. MODELS SHOW WEDGE ERODING OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS TO
THE SOUTH, BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT CAN BE HARD TO ERODE THE
WEDGE AT NIGHT, THOUGH THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WINS OUT. EVEN SO, STILL HAVE
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT MONDAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO
NC MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA, BUT
THIS IS MAINLY FOR ANY POTENTIAL WEDGE FRONT INDUCED
WIND/TORNADO OCCURRENCES. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS LIKE HIGHER THREAT
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF US TONIGHT ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NC.
WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT PER STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ, SO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY GENERALLY WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE OVERNIGHT FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG FRONT MONDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
AREAWIDE. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY, THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A POTENT NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE ATMOSPHERIC LIFTING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
WHILE A 50-KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROVIDES
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR AND BUOYANCY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
INITIALLY SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHERE LIGHTNING MAY
BE LIMITED BUT RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MORE ROBUST, DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) IS LIKELY TO
ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE LINE. REFLECTING THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN REGION UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5), THE FOOTHILLS IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) AND THE PIEDMONT IN A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5).
WINDS FIELDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED TO REACH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH. THE LLJ ALOFT INCREASES TO 50 KTS SO WATCH FOR
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH MOMENTUM MIX DOWN FROM
SHOWERS AND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THEIR OWN WIND POTENTIAL AND WILL
RESERVE WORDING FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 58 MPH FOR CONVECTIVE
WARNINGS. IN GENERAL ONCE THE FRONT HAS PASSED, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH, THEN RAMP BACK UP AGAIN WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION MONDAY EVENING. THAT SAID, WILL MAINTAIN A WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINE UNTIL THE WINDS DIMINISH AFTER THE COLD SURGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO START IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CRASHING INTO THE LOW TO MID-30S
BY EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSES. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS TRANSITION COULD
AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
WHERE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR TURN TO ALL SNOW. BY MIDNIGHT, SNOW
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES, WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE PEAKS AND WINDWARD
SLOPES, WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKELY SEE A DUSTING TO HALF OF AN
INCH.
RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
PLUMMETED TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH LOW TO MID-20S EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BITTER WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 0F AND 10F ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL FEEL LIKE 15F TO 20F. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
THE LOW TO MID-40S TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CURRENTLY, SEEING AN INCREASE IN MVFR CEILINGS AS SHRA MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS PRIMARILY LIGHT WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY AS WELL. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
TOMORROW, WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING OVERNIGHT TO
LIFR/MVFR IN INCREASING BOUTS OF SHOWERS. EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN 12 TO
00Z. THUNDER LOOKS UNLIKELY TONIGHT BUT IT WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY EVEN BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT ARRIVING. WE DO HAVE A STRONG LLJ WHICH MAY MIX DOWN AN
OCCASIONAL 40 KNOT GUST, BUT MORE LIKELY TOMORROW WITH THE
CONVECTION.
SSE WINDS ARE PREVAILING, AND MAY BE ERRATICALLY GUSTY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF LLWS AND TURBULENCE AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
TOMORROW. TOMORROW, WINDS INCREASE AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WNW AND BECOMING VERY
GUSTY BEHIND IT. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SITES SEEING GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT AND ONLY AFFECT
LYH AND DAN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE, COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, WITH UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY FOR BLF AND
PERHAPS LWB LATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING, MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND BLF AND LWB. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. STRATUS AND
FLURRIES MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY,
AND STRATUS MAY ACTUALLY REDEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ011>020-022>024-032>035-043.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR VAZ044>047-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-009-010.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ001>003-018-019.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ044-
507.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
WVZ042-043-508.
DISCUSSION...PM/RCS/SH/WP
AVIATION...SH/VFJ
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