070
FXUS61 KRNK 161054
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
654 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION UPDATED.
PREVIOUS CHANGES:
ENOUGH CONCERN FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF NC/GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND WESTERN GREENBRIER TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, AS SNOW STARTS TO ARRIVE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES REGARDING THE SEVERE AND WIND ADVISORY
OUTLOOKS.
NOTE: DUE TO THE HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY WAS LEFT OUT OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW,
BUT NO BIG CHANGES WERE OBSERVED WITH TEMPS WARMING UP AGAIN BY
LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TWO LINES, AND SOME DISCRETE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THE LINE IN THE PIEDMONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
STILL THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
2) STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS 35 TO 55 MPH OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
3) COLDER TEMPERATURE SURGE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, SOME
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE, HIGHEST WILL BE AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN WESTERN GREENBRIER AND THE NC
MOUNTAINS/GRAYSON HIGHLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE STORMS ARE GOOD POSSIBILITY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN WITH QLCS FROM NEAR
CINCINNATI TO CROSSVILLE TO WEST OF BIRMINGHAM. OVER OUR AREA,
WE STILL HAVE AN IN-SITU WEDGE, BUT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ERODE THIS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LINE APPROACHES.
LEANING CLOSER TO THE 00Z HRRR BASED ON HOW ITS BEEN CAPTURING
THE RADAR EARLIER TONIGHT. EVEN OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
PAINTING A PICTURE OF JUST A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN CWA
BETWEEN 6AM-8AM. AHEAD OF THIS IN CENTRAL NC, THE MODELS START
TO SHOW INCREASE IN DISCRETE CELLS, WHICH AS THE FLOW VEERS FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE TO SOUTHWEST ABOVE 1-2KFT
AGL, WILL SEE THE STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALL THE DYNAMICS/SHEAR ENERGY FOR ROBUST WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS
THERMODYNAMICS AS MOST MODELS ARE KEEPING IT FAIRLY CLOUDY AND
LOW CLOUDS AT THAT IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY.
THE SPEED OF THE LINE AND THE STRONG HELICITY STILL IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT CONCERN OF SEVERE WEATHER, AND MORE-SO EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND DEFINITELY EAST OF A LYNCHBURG TO DANVILLE TO
GREENSBORO LINE. FURTHER WEST, LOOKS MORE LIKE STRAIGHT-LINE
WIND ISSUES, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE TORNADO ALONG THE
BOWING SEGMENTS, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TORNADOES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MEANING THE MOUNTAINS/NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS.
HIGH-RES MODELS ACTUALLY SHOWING A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION,
THOUGH WEAKER WITH THE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FINE LINE COULD ALSO BRING STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GRADIENT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
STILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
JET AT 8H COMING INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AT 50-60KTS
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE STRONGER NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH PRESSURE RISES IN 6
HOURS ON THE ORDER OF 10MB, THOUGH BY THEN STRONG JET AS RACED
WELL AHEAD ACROSS THE COAST. STILL ENOUGH OF A SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES TO MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MUCH COLDER WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES START OUT MILD TODAY, THEN AS THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPS WILL CRASH INTO
THE 30S AFTER 4PM, AND 20S BY DARK IN THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER
ENERGY WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH WILL CHANGE RAIN TO
SNOW. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT TO
POTENTIAL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
DUSK. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS LIKE THE LAST EVENT, BUT NOT AS
WARM, WILL IMPACT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT. BUT, ANY SNOW SHOWERS
COULD HAVE RATES OF 1"+/HR WITH THEM AND LAY DOWN A FEW INCHES
IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN GREENBRIER AND THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NC INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK HITTER AS MOISTURE DROPS OFF FAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT LINGERING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER. EVEN
THOUGH FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY,
WHICH IS 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS, THE TIMING OF THE RAIN
CHANGING TO TO SNOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE TIME TO HAVE AN ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING. EXPECT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME
STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF ROA THIS AFTERNOON.
DO NOT SEE ANY IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS START TO SCATTER
OUT THE SUB-VFR CIGS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL LINGER IN SUB-VFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING, MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND BLF AND LWB. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS MAY
ACTUALLY REDEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE
TO SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION, BUT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP IT VFR.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH A WARM FRONT TRACKING IN
THURSDAY MAY BRING SOME SUB-VFR CIGS INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ011>020-022>024-032>035-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR VAZ044>047-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009-010.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ001>003-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
WVZ044-507.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-043-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...SH/WP
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