697
FXUS61 KRNK 161907
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES WEST
OF I-77.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED UP WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR FAR WESTERN
VA...ENOUGH CONCERN TO CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES FROM BLUEFIELD AND
TAZEWELL INTO THE WESTERN NRV BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT.
NOTE: DUE TO THE HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM, THE
FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY WAS NOT MODIFIED BEYOND MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN GENERAL, EXPECTING WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH RETURN TO MORE SPRING CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE
PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS, FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE: PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS, FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A DRAMATIC CHANGE THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS ENDED. NOW
WAITING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BRING ROLLER COASTER RIDE WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES CRASHING
INTO THE 30S AFTER 4PM, AND 20S BY DARK IN THE MOUNTAINS...THEN
SPIRALING LOWER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER ENERGY WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH WILL CHANGE RAIN
TO SNOW. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT
TO BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
DURING THE LAST COLD FRONT PASSAGE. GROUND IS WARM, BUT HEAVY
SNOW RATES WILL QUICKLY OVERCOME THE WARMTH. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
COULD HAVE RATES OF 1"+/HR AND WITH THEM AND LAY DOWN A FEW
INCHES IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER TO
BLUEFIELD AND FROM BLUEFIELD TO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO
THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTER
AS MOISTURE DROPS OFF FAST AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY, WHICH IS 3 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS, THE TIMING OF THE RAIN CHANGING TO TO SNOW WITH
NO ABILITY FOR DOT TO PRE-TREAT ROADS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME TO HAVE AN ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS PASSED, BUT LIGHTER ON AND OFF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AS A SURFACE FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE AREA, EXPECT CIGS TO DROP SUB-VFR. THE VERY COLD AIR
POST FRONT WILL TURN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAIN OVER TO SNOW, AND IN
SOME SPOTS A BIT OF SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE. IN THESE AREAS, THE
ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS WILL REDUCE VSBYS WHILE SNOW IS FALLING.
THIS WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO BLF/LWB TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS,
GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS AT MOST SITES IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
EARLY TUESDAY, EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO CLEAR, AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO BECOME THE NORM AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOW CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY REDEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION, BUT MODEL TRENDS KEEP IT VFR.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH A WARM FRONT TRACKING IN
THURSDAY MAY BRING SOME SUB-VFR CIGS INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ011>020-022>024-
032>035-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
010-015.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ001>003-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ042-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...VFJ
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