434
FXUS61 KRNK 170146
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
946 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SLIPPERY ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
GETTING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NOTE: DUE TO THE HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM, THE
FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY WAS NOT MODIFIED BEYOND MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN GENERAL, EXPECTING WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH RETURN TO MORE SPRING CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS, SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE: GUSTY WINDS, SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A DRAMATIC CHANGE THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS ENDED. NOW
WAITING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BRING ROLLER COASTER RIDE WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES CRASHING
INTO THE 30S AFTER 4PM, AND 20S BY DARK IN THE MOUNTAINS...THEN
SPIRALING LOWER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER ENERGY WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH WILL CHANGE RAIN
TO SNOW. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT
TO BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
DURING THE LAST COLD FRONT PASSAGE. GROUND IS WARM, BUT HEAVY
SNOW RATES WILL QUICKLY OVERCOME THE WARMTH. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
COULD HAVE RATES OF 1"+/HR AND WITH THEM AND LAY DOWN A FEW
INCHES IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER TO
BLUEFIELD AND FROM BLUEFIELD TO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO
THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTER
AS MOISTURE DROPS OFF FAST AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY, WHICH IS 3 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS, THE TIMING OF THE RAIN CHANGING TO TO SNOW WITH
NO ABILITY FOR DOT TO PRE-TREAT ROADS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME TO HAVE AN ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH EASTERN VA. PRECIPITATION REMAINED RAIN CLOSER TO
THE FRONT, BUT BEHIND IT THE RAIN WAS BEING REPLACED WITH SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS.
IFR/LIFR CONTINUE FOR BLF, LWB, AND BCB, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
AROUND TUE/2-4Z TO LIFR/MVFR. AFTER THAT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RETURN TO
VFR. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW FOR BLF, LWB, AND BCB, MAYBE LIFTING TO VFR BY 21Z.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING TO
MOSTLY FLURRIES TOMORROW. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL COME DOWN SOME
OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN GUSTY TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT SPEEDS
8 TO 12 KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOW CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY REDEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION, AND EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO RETURN TO BLF AND
LWB. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH A WARM
FRONT TRACKING IN THURSDAY MAY BRING SOME SUB-VFR CIGS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN BRIEFLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN REMAIN LIGHT BUT OUT OF THE SSW
THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BECOMING SLIGHTLY GUSTY SATURDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ011>020-022>024-
032>035-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
010-015.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ001>003-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ042-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH/WP
AVIATION...SH/VFJ
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