375
FXUS61 KRNK 171055
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
655 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 5AM. NEXT HEADLINE TO EXPIRE WILL BE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHERN
WV, WITH WESTERN GREENBRIER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RUNNING TIL
5PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
2) WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY THIS MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH ANOTHER INCH OR SO
LIKELY FROM THE NC HIGH COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN WV. FLURRIES COULD
BE SEEN AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. GIVEN THIS HAVE EXTENDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 8AM, EXCEPT KEPT WESTERN
GREENBRIER AS IS TIL 5 PM TODAY.
IT IS GOING TO STAY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY, SO
ANTICIPATE SLICK ROADS AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST WITH SUN ANGLE
HIGHER AND TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ANY SNOW WILL MELT OFF.
THE STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY 5AM AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST PRESSURE RISES
SHIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. STILL A BLUSTERY MARCH DAY,
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO START IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER WAVE THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK BURST OF
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT LOOKS LIKE A
GLANCING BLOW, WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER
RIDGES OF WV.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER WITH WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK.
5H TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY FRIDAY WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. WARM FRONT TRACKS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND
SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH AIRMASS LOOKS VERY DRY SO NOT LEANING TOWARD
ANY PRECIP WEDNESDAY AS OF THIS FORECAST.
BY THE WEEKEND, PATTERN FEATURES MORE ZONAL FLOW AT 5H, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
FLORIDA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WHEN MODELS HAVE THE
FRONT BACKDOORING DOWN. AFTER SUNDAY, LOOKS LIKE WE COULD WEDGED
IN AGAIN MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
RUNNING THIS MORNING AS FAR EAST AS BCB/ROA BUT MAIN VSBY
IMPACTS WILL BE AT BLF. CEILINGS WILL STAY MVFR OR LOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR TO
THE EAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY, THEN DIMINISH AFTER DARK.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME SUB-VFR
CIGS WITH A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009-010-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-
043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...WP
AVIATION...SH/VFJ/WP
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