115
FXUS61 KRNK 171626
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1226 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LET WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR ALL BUT WESTER GREENBRIER
COUNTY. HOWEVER, THIS AREA IS STILL SUBJECT TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW.
WILL USE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE WEATHER HAZARDS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH 5PM WHERE
THE SNOW WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO THE FOOTHILLS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ENDING
TONIGHT.
2) WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH A
FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE INTO THE FOOTHILLS LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ENDING TONIGHT.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW, IN
ADDITION TO WHAT IS ALREADY ON THE GROUND. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RE-COAT ROADS WITH SNOW
MAKING THEM ICY.
WEBCAMS SHOW A SOLID COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH
ABOUT 1 INCH IN THE NRV AND 1-3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ABOVE 3500 FEET WE HAD SOME REPORT CLOSER TO 5 INCHES.
IT IS GOING TO STAY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY, SO
ANTICIPATE SLICK ROADS AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST WITH SUN ANGLE
HIGHER AND TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ANY SNOW WILL MELT OFF.
STILL LOOKING AT A BLUSTERY MARCH DAY, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER WITH WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK.
5H TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY FRIDAY WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. WARM FRONT TRACKS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND
SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH AIRMASS LOOKS VERY DRY SO NOT LEANING TOWARD
ANY PRECIP WEDNESDAY AS OF THIS FORECAST.
BY THE WEEKEND, PATTERN FEATURES MORE ZONAL FLOW AT 5H, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
FLORIDA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WHEN MODELS HAVE THE
FRONT BACKDOORING DOWN. AFTER SUNDAY, LOOKS LIKE WE COULD WEDGED
IN AGAIN MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
MAINLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR CLOUD COVER TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (15 TO 25 KTS GUSTS) ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
(10 TO 15 KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE) UNTIL SUNSET. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED. BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
CLOSE TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HEADING INTO, AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A GENERAL REGION OF
TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
OUR PREVAILING WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY IMPACT PRIMARILY THE MOUNTAINS. ONE OF THESE IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, THE NEXT ONE ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE
FEATURES PROVIDING FOR SOME LOCALLY AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FEATURE ON SUNDAY MAY BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...DS
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