457
FXUS61 KRNK 171834
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
234 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAINTAINED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOUNTAINS UNTIL
SUNSET WITH A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE WV
HIGHLANDS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH 5PM FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WANE THIS EVENING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WANE THIS EVENING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR DECREASING ACTIVITY AS WE LOOSE THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
BIGGER STORY NOW IS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...READINGS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME BUT DOES
NOT ENTIRELY GO AWAY. FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES, BUT OVERALL, THINK BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT
WILL BE CLOUD COVER YIELDING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, PATTERN FEATURES MORE ZONAL FLOW AT 5H, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
FLORIDA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WHEN MODELS HAVE THE
FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
PATTERN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPIKE BRIEFLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, THEN DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
MAINLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR CLOUD COVER TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (15 TO 25 KTS GUSTS) ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
(10 TO 15 KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE) UNTIL SUNSET. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED. BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
CLOSE TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST. EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HEADING INTO, AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A GENERAL REGION OF
TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
OUR PREVAILING WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY IMPACT PRIMARILY THE MOUNTAINS. ONE OF THESE IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, THE NEXT ONE ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE
FEATURES PROVIDING FOR SOME LOCALLY AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FEATURE ON SUNDAY MAY BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...DS
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