554
FXUS61 KRNK 180007
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
807 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WANE THIS EVENING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WANE THIS EVENING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR DECREASING ACTIVITY AS WE LOOSE THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
BIGGER STORY NOW IS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...READINGS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME BUT DOES
NOT ENTIRELY GO AWAY. FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES, BUT OVERALL, THINK BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT
WILL BE CLOUD COVER YIELDING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, PATTERN FEATURES MORE ZONAL FLOW AT 5H, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
FLORIDA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WHEN MODELS HAVE THE
FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
PATTERN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPIKE BRIEFLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, THEN DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOUDY BUT BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THANKS THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KLWB AND KBLF THIS EVENING, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (<20%) FOR ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. VFR SKIES EXPECTED FOR ALL AIRPORTS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY WEATHER CHANGE BEING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH A BRIEF CHANCE (20-30%) OF
RAIN TO REACH KBLF, KLWB, AND KBCB ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY ALSO BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS FOR ALL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE, FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...CG
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