387
FXUS61 KRNK 180517
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
117 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WANE THIS EVENING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WANE THIS
EVENING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR DECREASING ACTIVITY AS WE LOOSE THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
BIGGER STORY NOW IS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...READINGS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME BUT DOES
NOT ENTIRELY GO AWAY. FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES, BUT OVERALL, THINK BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT
WILL BE CLOUD COVER YIELDING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, PATTERN FEATURES MORE ZONAL FLOW AT 5H, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
FLORIDA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WHEN MODELS HAVE THE
FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
PATTERN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPIKE BRIEFLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, THEN DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE AT BLF AND LWB FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATER TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
SOME BROKEN CIRRUS WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING AND LINGER
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WHICH IS BEING SUPPLIED BY AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE ALOFT. THE WIND SHOULD
SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BY THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES OVERHEAD, AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT BLF AND LWB DURING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR
BLF AND LWB BY THURSDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS COULD ARISE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PW
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