130
FXUS61 KRNK 181105
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
2) WARMING TREND THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
3) CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL UNTIL
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...READINGS AVERAGING 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY...5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 15 DEGREES (POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES) ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLER COASTER
SEASON (SPRING) SO WE TAKE A NOSE DIVE AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL
UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ONE COMING THROUGH TODAY,
ANOTHER THURSDAY EVENING, AND YET ANOTHER FRIDAY EVENING, ALL
SPREAD OUT ABOUT 24 HOURS APART. BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT FROM THESE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVES WILL BE CLOUD COVER, BUT
YIELDING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES, BUT THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
VIRGA...PRECIPITATION THAT EVAPORATES BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND WITH PROBABILITY OF GETTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE (0.01)
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, A BONAFIDE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH, PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY EVENING AND UP UNTIL ITS PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALBEIT
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND WHETHER IT
STALLS OR LINGERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS
DIVERGING ON ITS PROGRESSIVENESS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PROVIDED FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCT-BKN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY, POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO MVFR ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW CHOSE TO KEEP CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3KFT
EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE AIRMASS WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS.
THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER BY THIS EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OVERHEAD, AND THERE IS A
A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BLF AND LWB FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF VIRGA ON FLURRIES THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR
BLF AND LWB BY THURSDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS COULD ARISE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM/PW
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