614
FXUS61 KRNK 181733
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
EXPECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) WARMING TREND THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
3) CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL UNTIL
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...READINGS AVERAGING 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND 40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT,
BUT STILL WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY...5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 15 DEGREES (POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES) ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLER COASTER
SEASON (SPRING) SO WE TAKE A NOSE DIVE AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL
UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ONE COMING THROUGH THIS
EVENING, ANOTHER THURSDAY EVENING, AND YET ANOTHER FRIDAY
EVENING, ALL SPREAD OUT ABOUT 24 HOURS APART. BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT
FROM THESE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVES WILL BE CLOUD COVER,
BUT YIELDING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES
OR SPRINKLES, BUT THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF VIRGA...PRECIPITATION THAT EVAPORATES BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND WITH PROBABILITY OF GETTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE (0.01)
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, A BONAFIDE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH, PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY EVENING AND UP UNTIL ITS PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALBEIT
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND WHETHER IT
STALLS OR LINGERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS
DIVERGING ON ITS PROGRESSIVENESS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCT-BKN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING, POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO MVFR ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
AFTER SUNSET. FOR NOW CHOSE TO KEEP CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3KFT EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE AIRMASS WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS.
CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER BY THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OVERHEAD, AND THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BLF AND LWB FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
VIRGA ON FLURRIES THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.
MUCH OF THE SAME ON THURSDAY WITH VFR PERSISTING AND SOME
PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN
COVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY
UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS COULD ARISE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...BMG/PM
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