636
FXUS61 KRNK 182330
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
730 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) WARMING TREND THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
3) CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL UNTIL
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...READINGS AVERAGING 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND 40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT,
BUT STILL WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY...5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 15 DEGREES (POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES) ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLER COASTER
SEASON (SPRING) SO WE TAKE A NOSE DIVE AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL
UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ONE COMING THROUGH THIS
EVENING, ANOTHER THURSDAY EVENING, AND YET ANOTHER FRIDAY
EVENING, ALL SPREAD OUT ABOUT 24 HOURS APART. BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT
FROM THESE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVES WILL BE CLOUD COVER,
BUT YIELDING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES
OR SPRINKLES, BUT THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF VIRGA...PRECIPITATION THAT EVAPORATES BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND WITH PROBABILITY OF GETTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE (0.01)
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, A BONAFIDE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH, PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY EVENING AND UP UNTIL ITS PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALBEIT
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND WHETHER IT
STALLS OR LINGERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS
DIVERGING ON ITS PROGRESSIVENESS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER AS A DISTURBANCE GOES THROUGH BUT
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RECEIVING MVFR CONDITIONS IS LOW. THE
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A VERY SMALL (<15%) CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO
KLWB OVERNIGHT BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT AND
UNEVENTFUL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY FORECAST WISE. IN
SUMMARY, ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
QUIET WEATHER TO LIKELY KEEP ALL AIRPORTS AT VFR UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE GOES THROUGH TO OFFER A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM UP BY THEN SO ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE JUST RAIN. A SEPARATE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO PROVIDE A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL AIRPORTS. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS EVENT IS
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME WIND WITH IT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25
KTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...CG
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