394
FXUS61 KRNK 190543 CCA
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL UNTIL
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY...5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 15 DEGREES (POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES) ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLER COASTER
SEASON (SPRING) SO WE TAKE A NOSE DIVE AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL
UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD (DAYS 3-7), THE
OVERARCHING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., WITH RIDGING ANCHORED OUT
WEST. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC, THIS
GENERALLY FAVORS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN, BUT PINNING DOWN THE
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC.
CURRENT ASSESSMENTS OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (GFS, ECMWF, CMC),
AS WELL AS THE AI MODELS, SUGGEST THEY ARE STRUGGLING
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. SPECIFICALLY,
THEY APPEAR TO BE EJECTING SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FAR TOO QUICKLY.
A PRIME EXAMPLE OF THIS IS THE FRONTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL SUITES AND AI
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN RUSHING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. FURTHERMORE, THERE HAS BEEN A CONTINUED
NORTHWARD TREND REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS FRONTAL WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
DICTATE OUR PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
BECAUSE OF THESE PERSISTENT FAST BIASES, DETERMINISTIC AND AI
MODEL SKILL ESSENTIALLY PLUMMETS FROM DAY 5 ONWARD FOR OUR CWA.
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL BE HEAVILY DISCOUNTING THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MOST PRUDENT APPROACH AT THIS RANGE IS TO
STICK STRICTLY TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM). THE NBM
CURRENTLY ALIGNS WELL WITH THE BROADER, SMOOTHER CONSENSUS OF
THE GEFS, EPS, AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE THE POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY SEEN IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
STAY LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
QUIET WEATHER TO LIKELY KEEP ALL AIRPORTS AT VFR UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE GOES THROUGH TO OFFER A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. A SEPARATE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PASS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
ALL AIRPORTS. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME WIND WITH IT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...CG/WP
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