911
FXUS61 KRNK 191746
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH IS LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED BEYOND TODAY/TONIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL UNTIL
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TREND BY FRIDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY...5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 15 DEGREES (POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES) ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLER COASTER
SEASON (SPRING) SO WE TAKE A NOSE DIVE AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL
UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH MONDAY, WHICH WILL IN TURN BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
MOMENT, EXPECTING JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THE 0.25
INCHES GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM DOMINATED SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY DEPART BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO MAINLY CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE TOMORROW. SOME PERSISTENT CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE, GENERALLY IN THE 10KFT TO 15KFT RANGE. SHOULD
SEE THIS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
QUIET WEATHER TO LIKELY KEEP ALL AIRPORTS AT VFR UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE GOES THROUGH TO OFFER A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. A SEPARATE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PASS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
ALL AIRPORTS. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME WIND WITH IT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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