573
FXUS61 KRNK 192309
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
709 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL UNTIL
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TREND BY FRIDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY...5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 15 DEGREES (POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES) ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLER COASTER
SEASON (SPRING) SO WE TAKE A NOSE DIVE AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL
UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH MONDAY, WHICH WILL IN TURN BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
MOMENT, EXPECTING JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THE 0.25
INCHES GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM DOMINATED SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY DEPART BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, ASIDE FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS THAT DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING, AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME BKN TO OVC FIRST FOR KLWB AND
KBLF AROUND 18Z OR SO, AND THEN SPREADS EASTWARD.
CEILINGS DON'T LOOK TO GET BELOW VFR UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF, AFTER 00Z SATURDAY, ALSO WHEN PRECIPITATION REACHES
THE AREA TERMINALS.
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12Z OR SO, WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS BY 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
QUIET WEATHER TO LIKELY KEEP ALL AIRPORTS AT VFR UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE GOES THROUGH TO OFFER A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. A SEPARATE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR ALL AIRPORTS. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SOME WIND WITH IT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...AS/BMG/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page