736
FXUS61 KRNK 200635
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
235 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALSO ON
MONDAY DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TODAY, A SHARP TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ALOFT, WHILE A
LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE DESERT SW. OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC, FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
AREA, PROVIDING FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND, EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
BY SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SW WINDS AT THE SURFACE,
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 13 TO 15C WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES OVER 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
NAEFS 850MB TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.
A TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, PUSHING A
ELONGATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
WHILE THE PIEDMONT HANGS ON TO 70S FOR ONE MORE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGES 2: CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ALSO ON MONDAY DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES.
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCKS INTO PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST. AS A RESULT, THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN IN A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA BUT LIKELY DECAY AS IT HITS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
NOTABLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING THE 40S AFTER
SUNSET. THUS, JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THE
ACTIVITY WEAKENS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES VIRGINIA, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS FOR THE NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY
DISSOLVES. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RESUME DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS PARTICULAR TROUGH IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THEREFORE, IT APPEARS TO BOOST MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE PIEDMONT ON MONDAY. WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY ON MONDAY ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUD, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, AND MAY BRING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AFTER 21/00Z. BLF
AND LWB MAY ALSO HAVE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS
AROUND 21/00Z AS WELL, AND LLWS IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE BUT DAN AND
LYH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS MAY DROP DOWN TO MVFR
AROUND OR AFTER 21/06Z AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BLF, LWB, BCB, AND PERHAPS ROA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPEEDS TO DROP OFF SOME AFTER 23Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE VFR WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WSW WINDS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
GUSTY NW WINDS MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 KTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/SH
AVIATION...SH
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