012
FXUS61 KRNK 201750
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
A SERIES OF FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH
FRONT FEATURING A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF IT, THEN A SUBSEQUENT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN POSSIBLE WITH EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
3) CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
FRIDAY DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES EVENTUALLY
AMPLIFIES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE
LOW TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A RESULTANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO MISSOURI. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THE LATTER DAY BEING THE WARMEST. MID 80S POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A PASSING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN STILL FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE FETCH
IS LIMITED, BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING, AND A FAVORABLE UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE, SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OTHER THAN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AMOUNTS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, WEDNESDAY,
AND FRIDAY DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES.
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO STEER A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, STARTING
MONDAY. DUE TO THE RAPID PACE OF THESE SYSTEMS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER ITS MOISTURE BETWEEN PASSAGES, LIKELY
LIMITING RAINFALL WITH EACH FRONT TO A MODEST TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL PASSAGES
OCCURRING ON BOTH MONDAY AND FRIDAY, FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY,
KEEPING THE AREA CLEAR OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. IN CONTRAST,
THE GFS IDENTIFIES A SHORTWAVE TRACKING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD INTRODUCE LIGHT RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL PREVAILS, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO ENSURE THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS EXCLUSIVELY AS RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE CATEGORY THROUGHOUT
THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AREAWIDE AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE
LIMITED, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CIG RESTRICTIONS WITH MOST
REMAINING BKN/OVC AND ABOVE 4KFT. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY, GIVING WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE VFR WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WSW WINDS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
GUSTY NW WINDS MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 KTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/RCS
AVIATION...BMG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page