260
FXUS61 KRNK 202318
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
A SERIES OF FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH
FRONT FEATURING A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF IT, THEN A SUBSEQUENT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN POSSIBLE WITH EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
3) CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
FRIDAY DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES EVENTUALLY
AMPLIFIES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE
LOW TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A RESULTANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO MISSOURI. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THE LATTER DAY BEING THE WARMEST. MID 80S POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A PASSING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN STILL FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE FETCH
IS LIMITED, BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING, AND A FAVORABLE UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE, SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OTHER THAN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AMOUNTS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, WEDNESDAY,
AND FRIDAY DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES.
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO STEER A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, STARTING
MONDAY. DUE TO THE RAPID PACE OF THESE SYSTEMS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER ITS MOISTURE BETWEEN PASSAGES, LIKELY
LIMITING RAINFALL WITH EACH FRONT TO A MODEST TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL PASSAGES
OCCURRING ON BOTH MONDAY AND FRIDAY, FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY,
KEEPING THE AREA CLEAR OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. IN CONTRAST,
THE GFS IDENTIFIES A SHORTWAVE TRACKING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD INTRODUCE LIGHT RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL PREVAILS, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO ENSURE THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS EXCLUSIVELY AS RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS AND LLWS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE 06 TO 10 UTC TIMEFRAME. WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR
BEING PRESENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, CIGS
LOOK TO REMAIN BKN/OVC ABOVE 4KFT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS
MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS BLF AND LWB THROUGH THE 06-10 UTC
TIMEFRAME; HOWEVER ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS SW VIRGINIA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE CLEARER SKIES TAKE OVER AFTER THE 18
UTC TIMEFRAME FOR ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 5
KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/RCS
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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